PAX Gold/Bitcoin Market Overview

• PAXGBTC dropped 5.5% over 24 hours, closing below a critical support level.
• Volatility expanded with a sharp move lower after 19:30 ET, amid increasing volume.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions but lack immediate bullish confirmation.
• Bollinger Band contraction in early hours failed to reverse the bearish trend.
• Price may test 0.0311–0.0313 as short-term support with potential for further downside.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03193 on 2025-09-17 and closed at 0.03133 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The pair traded between 0.03130 and 0.03201 over the 24-hour window. Total trading volume was 145.84 BTC, and turnover reached 4.576 BTC-equivalent. A sharp bearish reversal emerged after midday ET, with price falling into a lower range.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key breakdown below the 0.0317–0.0319 support zone after a 15-minute candle at 19:30 ET printed a long lower wick and bearish close. A series of bearish engulfing patterns followed, confirming the breakdown. A notable doji formed at 0.03154 during the overnight session, indicating a potential short-term pause in selling pressure. Critical resistance levels appear at 0.0319–0.0320, with support testing likely at 0.0313–0.0315.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA in early trading. This bearish “death cross” signaled weakening momentum and confirmed the ongoing downtrend. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) also trended downward, with price currently below all three, reinforcing a bearish bias for the near term.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD remained negative throughout the day, with the histogram expanding as the decline accelerated. A bearish crossover occurred late afternoon, amplifying the downward bias. RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory in the overnight session but failed to generate a rebound, indicating weak buying interest. A divergence between price and RSI suggests caution for potential further declines.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent most of the session inside the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, with volatility increasing as the bands expanded after 18:00 ET. The breakdown below the lower band at 0.0315 marked a key short-term turning point, with price continuing to trade inside the lower boundary. A contraction in the bands occurred just before the breakdown, which often precedes a significant move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged notably after 19:30 ET, coinciding with the breakdown below 0.0317. A large bearish candle with 4.68 BTC of volume confirmed the move. Overnight, volume remained elevated, with several 1–2 BTC trades at key support levels. Notional turnover aligned with price weakness, showing no divergence between volume and price action, which supports the validity of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 0.03201–0.03151 swing showed price hitting the 61.8% level at 0.03164 before continuing lower. The 38.2% level at 0.03178 failed to hold as support, confirming the bearish bias. Daily Fibonacci retracements from the 0.03201–0.03130 swing suggest further support at 0.03120 and potential resistance at 0.03160.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for PAXGBTC could focus on short-biased setups triggered by a breakdown below key support levels confirmed by volume and candlestick patterns, such as the bearish engulfing pattern. A stop-loss could be placed above the 0.0317 level, with a target aiming for 0.0312–0.0313. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD can confirm the strength of the setup, while Bollinger Bands can highlight periods of high volatility to avoid false breakouts. This approach aligns with the current bearish structure and could offer a favorable risk-reward profile.