Parker-Hannifin Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Parker-Hannifin (PH) is facing a weak technical landscape, with more bearish than bullish indicators and an internal diagnostic score of 4.28, urging caution.

News Highlights

• May 29, 2025 - Farm machinery industry eyes modest recovery: Agricultural equipment sales are showing signs of stabilization, which could indirectly support Parker-Hannifin’s industrial segments as demand for machinery components rises.
• May 31, 2025 - Trump fast-tracks Utah uranium mine: Although the industry’s revival may depend on higher prices, this move could signal increased infrastructure and energy-related spending, potentially benefiting Parker-Hannifin’s industrial and aerospace segments.
• May 31, 2025 - China’s factory activity contracts in May: While there are early signs of improvement in the world’s second-largest economy, a still-weak manufacturing sector could delay global recovery and weigh on Parker-Hannifin’s international sales.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Consensus and Alignment with Price

Analysts have issued mixed signals. The simple average rating is 4.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.77. These scores suggest a relatively neutral to bearish outlook, with a mismatch to the recent 1.32% price rise. The two active analysts—Charles Minervino (Susquehanna) and Nicole Deblase (Deutsche Bank)—have both shown 100% historical win rates in their limited recent activity, but their current ratings differ: a "Strong Buy" and a "Neutral."

Fundamental Scores and Key Values

The fundamental score for Parker-Hannifin is 2.22, indicating a below-average fundamental outlook. Here are the key metrics:

• Revenue-MV Score: 2.0 – Indicates weak revenue-to-market value alignment.
• Total operating revenue (YoY growth rate): -22.61% – Suggests a significant drop in operating revenue year-over-year.
• EV/EBIT: 26.40 – A high enterprise value relative to EBIT, indicating potential overvaluation.
• PE: 98.06 – Extremely high price-to-earnings ratio, indicating elevated investor expectations or potential overvaluation.
• Profit-MV Score: 2.0 – Profit-to-market value is also underperforming.
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): 24.17% – Positive cash flow growth, a bright spot in an otherwise weak fundamental picture.

Money-Flow Trends

Parker-Hannifin is experiencing positive overall money flow with an internal diagnostic score of 7.9. This is driven by positive inflows across all size categories—with block, large, and extra-large investors showing the strongest inflow ratios, all above 50%. Notably, small investors are showing negative trends, indicating a lack of retail support. The inflow ratio for large investors is 51.42%, and for block investors, it is 50.81%, suggesting strong institutional confidence.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for Parker-Hannifin is weak, with an internal diagnostic score of 4.28. Below are the key indicators and their performance:

• WR Overbought Score: 2.0 – The stock is overbought, but with a neutral bias based on historical performance.
• MACD Death Cross Score: 3.87 – A bearish signal, but with only a 44.44% win rate, suggesting limited historical effectiveness.
• Ex-Dividend Date Score: 3.79 – Neutral impact on price, with mixed historical returns.
• Dividend Record Date Score: 3.79 – Similar to the ex-dividend date, with limited positive impact observed historically.
• Bullish Engulfing Score: 7.95 – A strong bullish candlestick pattern, historically associated with a 70% win rate and positive returns.

Recent Chart Patterns

• 2025-09-04: A bullish engulfing pattern appeared, signaling potential upward momentum.
• 2025-09-02: The ex-dividend and dividend record dates were active, typically leading to mixed price movement.
• 2025-08-27 to 2025-08-28: The WR overbought indicator showed signs of overvaluation, reinforcing a cautious stance.

Summary of Momentum

Technically, the market for Parker-Hannifin is volatile, with 4 bearish indicators vs. 1 bullish, leading to a weak trend and a cautious outlook.

Conclusion

Parker-Hannifin is in a mixed and cautionary situation. While there is strong institutional inflow and a positive candlestick pattern recently, the overall technical score is low, and fundamentals suggest overvaluation. Investors may want to wait for a clearer trend or better alignment between fundamentals and price action. Watch for upcoming earnings reports for better clarity on the company’s operational strength and future guidance.