Par Pacific's Q2 Earnings on Deck: Should You Bet on the Stock?

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. PARR is set to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 4, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings is pegged at $8.20 per share, implying an improvement of 432.5% from the year-ago reported number. It has witnessed no estimate revisions in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $2.48 billion, suggesting an improvement of 30.8% from the year-ago actuals.

PARR beat the consensus estimate for earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 69.9%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Q2 Earnings Whispers for PARR

Our proven model doesn’t predict an earnings beat for PARR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That isn’t the case here.

The refining player has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. PARR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

PARR’s Factors to Note

To have an idea of how oil prices behaved in the June quarter, let's analyze the commodity prices from the data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). The average Cushing, OK, WTI spot prices for April, May and June of this year were $100.32 per barrel, $102.13 per barrel and $84.81 per barrel, respectively, per EIA data. Commodity prices were $63.54 per barrel, $62.17 per barrel and $68.17 per barrel, respectively, in April, May and June of 2025, according to the EIA.

A constructive oil-price backdrop, driven by the Iran war, is likely to have hurt the refining business of Par Pacific in the second quarter, since the input costs to produce final products like gasoline, diesel fuel and others were higher. A similar dynamic is likely to have affected Phillips 66 PSX and Valero Energy Corporation VLO, belonging to the same space.

However, the high utilization of refineries in the United States to meet resilient demand is likely to have largely offset the negative impacts of high input costs.

PARR’s Price Performance & Valuation

PARR's stock has surged 181.8% over the past year, outperforming the industry’s 77.9% growth. PSX has jumped 74.2% over the same time frame, while VLO has gained 131.7%.

One-Year Price Chart

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

With PARR’s stock price outperforming the industry, the company appears relatively overvalued. The company's current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) is 6.38x, reflecting that it is trading at a premium compared with the industry average of 5.93x. Both VLO and PSX are valued lower at 8.63x and 14.57x, respectively.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Investment Thesis of PARR

West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) oil is currently hovering around the $80-per-barrel mark, according to data from Oilprice.com, although high, but still significantly down from the mark of more than $100 per barrel reached in May this year. PARR, like Valero Energy and Phillips 66, is likely to gain from the current relatively softer crude pricing environment. This is because PARR, a leading refining company, is now able to purchase oil at a relatively lower cost, enabling the production of end products. Thus, Par Pacific, which generates significant margin from its refining activities, is likely to benefit.

Investors should also note that Par Pacific’s new renewable fuels plant has begun operations, but it is still being tested and refined. The company is also building up supplies and working to qualify for environmental credits. As a result, the plant is unlikely to contribute meaningfully to sales or profits in the near term. It may take time for production to ramp up and for the facility to become a meaningful source of earnings. Any delay in reaching full operations or in receiving the required credits could further slow that progress.

Last Word

Given the overall business backdrop and overvaluation, it mightn’t be the ideal time for investors to bet on the stock right away. In fact, investors who have already invested may continue to hold the stock.

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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR): Free Stock Analysis Report

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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