Par Pacific (PARR) Surges 9.6% on Intraday Rally – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Par Pacific (PARR) surges 9.6% to $40.42, hitting its 52-week high of $40.77
• $100M joint venture with Mitsubishi and ENEOS for Hawaii’s largest renewable fuels facility
• Intraday volume spikes to 925K shares, 1.9% of float

Par Pacific’s stock has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, surging 9.6% to $40.42 as of 7:31 PM EDT. The move coincides with the company’s announcement of a $100M joint venture to build Hawaii’s largest renewable fuels facility. With volume surging to 925K shares and the stock trading near its 52-week high, the market is scrambling to decipher the catalyst behind this sharp reversal from its 52-week low of $11.86.

Strategic Joint Venture Ignites Investor Optimism
Par Pacific’s 9.6% surge is directly tied to its announcement of Hawaii Renewables, LLC, a joint venture with Mitsubishi Corporation and ENEOS Corporation. The partnership secures $100M in cash for a 36.5% stake in the venture, which will construct a renewable fuels facility at Par’s Kapolei refinery. The facility, expected to produce 61 million gallons annually of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, positions Par Pacific as a key player in the energy transition. The deal’s immediate cash infusion and long-term production potential have galvanized investors, particularly as the project aligns with regulatory tailwinds for low-carbon fuels.

Energy Transition Stocks Rally as Oil & Gas Sector Gains Momentum
The broader oil and gas refining sector has seen a resurgence, with Valero Energy (VLO) surging 6.9% on the same day. Par Pacific’s rally mirrors sector-wide optimism around renewable fuels, as companies like Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum also see increased investor interest. The sector’s 0.67% gain in the S&P 504 underscores a shift toward energy transition plays, with Par Pacific’s joint venture offering a clear path to diversify into high-margin renewable fuels.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Par Pacific’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.347 (above signal line 0.383), RSI: 55.06 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $33.42–$37.78 (price at upper band)
• 200-day MA: $23.69 (far below current price), 30-day MA: $35.44 (support near $35.13)

Par Pacific’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with the stock trading near its 52-week high and above key moving averages. The RSI at 55.06 indicates no immediate overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram’s slight bearish crossover suggests short-term consolidation before a potential breakout. For leveraged exposure, consider XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) or UCO (United States Oil Fund) to mirror sector momentum.

Top Options Contracts:
• PARR20251121C40 (Call, $40 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 67.78% (elevated, reflecting volatility)
- Delta: 0.554 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0766 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0506 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $10,904 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 12.36% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $42.44): $2.44/share
- Why it stands out: High gamma and IV make this call ideal for a short-term rally, with liquid turnover ensuring easy entry/exit.

• PARR20251219C40 (Call, $40 strike, Dec 19 expiry):
- IV: 62.57% (reasonable)
- Delta: 0.566 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.0467 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.0393 (solid sensitivity)
- Turnover: $12,488 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 9.61% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $42.44): $2.44/share
- Why it stands out: Lower theta decay compared to the Nov 21 contract, offering more time for the rally to play out while maintaining liquidity and gamma exposure.

Actionable Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize PARR20251121C40 for a short-term bet on the joint venture’s near-term impact, while PARR20251219C40 offers a more conservative, time-extended play.

Backtest Par Pacific Stock Performance
Below is an interactive back-test report that summarizes how Par Pacific (PARR) performed when its intraday high exceeded the previous close by at least 10 % (buy next session’s open, max-10-day hold, 8 % stop-loss) from Jan-2022 through 23-Oct-2025. Key findings (high-level):• Strategy total return: -15.4 % (annualized -3.7 %) • Maximum drawdown: 31.8 % • Risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe): -0.29 • Average trade: -1.28 % (wins ≈ 9 %, losses ≈ -9 %) The parameters marked with “default” were assumed because they were not specified:1. Holding window: 10 trading days (default) – long enough to capture any follow-through while capping risk.2. Stop-loss: 8 % (default) – provides downside protection without exiting too quickly.No take-profit cap was set.Feel free to request adjustments (e.g., different holding period, add take-profit, include commission/slippage, change stop-loss) and I can re-run the analysis.Please explore the interactive report for more granular metrics, equity-curve visualization, and trade-level details. Let me know if you’d like to refine any parameters or test alternative exit rules.

Par Pacific’s Renewable Pivot: A Catalyst for Sustained Gains
Par Pacific’s joint venture with Mitsubishi and ENEOS represents a strategic pivot into renewable fuels, a sector poised for regulatory and market-driven growth. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and technicals favoring a continuation of the rally, investors should monitor key levels: support at $35.13 (30-day MA) and resistance at $40.77 (52-week high). The sector leader, Valero Energy (VLO), up 6.9%, reinforces the broader trend. For those seeking leverage, XLE or UCO offer sector exposure, while the selected options contracts provide high-gamma, high-liquidity plays. Watch for a breakout above $40.77 to confirm the move’s sustainability.