Par Pacific (PARR) Surges 8.7% on Intraday Rally Amid Renewable Fuels Momentum and Brokerage Upgrades

Summary
• Par Pacific (PARR) surges 8.7% to $47.63, hitting its 52-week high of $48.40
• Intraday turnover jumps to 1.74 million shares, with 3.66% turnover rate
• Brokerage upgrades and a $100M renewable fuels joint venture in Hawaii drive speculation

Par Pacific’s stock has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, surging 8.7% to $47.63 as of 5:16 PM ET. The surge coincides with a $100M joint venture with Mitsubishi and ENEOS for renewable fuels in Hawaii, announced earlier this year, and recent analyst upgrades. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $48.40, the move reflects renewed investor confidence in PARR’s strategic pivot toward sustainable energy.

Renewable Fuels Joint Venture and Brokerage Upgrades Drive PARR's Intraday Surge
The sharp 8.7% rally in Par Pacific’s stock is fueled by two key catalysts: a $100M joint venture with Mitsubishi and ENEOS to develop Hawaii’s largest renewable fuels facility, and a series of analyst upgrades. The joint venture, announced in July 2025, aligns with PARR’s strategic shift toward renewable energy infrastructure, positioning it to capitalize on federal incentives for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Meanwhile, brokerages including TD Cowen and Wall Street Zen have upgraded PARR to 'Strong-Buy' and 'Buy' ratings, citing improved cash flow and a $33–$35 price target range. These developments have reignited investor optimism about PARR’s long-term value proposition.

Oil & Gas Refining Sector Gains Momentum as PARR Outperforms
The Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector has seen robust performance amid global refining margin expansion, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Par Pacific’s 8.7% intraday gain outpaces sector peers like Valero Energy (VLO), which rose 0.12% on the day. The sector’s strength is underpinned by record refining margins, with European and Asian refiners also benefiting from reduced Russian product exports and U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft. PARR’s renewable fuels pivot positions it uniquely to capture both traditional refining margins and green energy tailwinds.

Options and ETFs for Capitalizing on PARR’s Volatility and Momentum
• 200-day average: 25.68 (well below current price)
• RSI: 57.16 (neutral to bullish)
• MACD: 1.67 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 35.51–44.95 (price near upper band)

PARR’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key resistance at $48.40 (52-week high) and support at $43.00 (intraday low). The stock’s 8.7% surge has pushed it into overbought territory on RSI, but strong MACD and Bollinger Band positioning indicate short-term upside potential. For leveraged exposure, consider bold and bold, which offer high leverage and liquidity.

bold (Call, $45 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
• IV: 65.05% (high)
• Leverage: 18.06%
• Delta: 0.7267 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.3799 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0931 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 25,156 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $2.96/share (45% gain).
This contract offers aggressive upside if PARR breaks above $48.40, with high gamma amplifying gains from volatility.

bold (Call, $50 strike, Dec 19 expiry):
• IV: 53.92% (moderate)
• Leverage: 24.71%
• Delta: 0.3882 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0647 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0503 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 52,633 (highly liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $1.96/share (39% gain).
This contract balances leverage and time decay, ideal for a mid-term hold if PARR consolidates near $48.40.

Aggressive bulls should consider PARR20251121C45 into a break above $48.40.

Backtest Par Pacific Stock Performance
Below is the event-study you requested. Key take-aways first, followed by the interactive report.1. Sample size: 8 qualifying days when PARR’s close finished ≥ +9 % versus the prior close (2022-01-01 → 2025-11-17). • Note – because true intraday high data were not available via the current data API, the filter was applied to close-to-close moves. Results should be interpreted accordingly. 2. Short-term behaviour (first 10 trading days) is mixed and statistically insignificant. 3. Medium-term drift turns positive: by trading-day 27 the average cumulative excess return reaches c.+16 ppts (20.6 % vs 4.2 % benchmark) and registers statistical significance for days 27-29. 4. By day 30 the edge moderates to +14.4 ppts and loses formal significance. 5. With only eight events, conclusions should be viewed as indicative, not definitive.You can explore the full distribution, win-rate curve, and event list in the interactive panel:Feel free to drill down on any point or ask for refinements (e.g., alternative thresholds, holding-period optimisation, or true intraday data if available).

PARR’s Rally: A Green Energy Play with Short-Term Catalysts
Par Pacific’s 8.7% intraday surge reflects a confluence of strategic momentum and sector tailwinds. The $100M Hawaii renewable fuels joint venture and analyst upgrades provide a clear near-term catalyst, while the stock’s technicals suggest continued upside. Investors should monitor the $48.40 52-week high for a breakout confirmation and watch for follow-through volume. For context, sector leader Valero Energy (VLO) rose 0.12% on the day, underscoring PARR’s outperformance. Take action: Buy PARR20251121C45 if $48.40 is breached, or hold cash for a pullback to $43.00 support.