Par Pacific (PARR) Plunges 10% on Earnings Beat: What's Driving the Selloff?

Summary
• Par Pacific (PARR) slumps 10.17% to $27.38, despite Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.54 (214% Y/Y jump)
• Intraday range widens to $26.83–$31.58, signaling sharp volatility post-earnings
• Options chain sees heavy activity in September $25 puts and December $25 puts

Par Pacific’s stock is in freefall despite a blockbuster Q2 earnings report, with shares down 10.17% to $27.38 as of 7:42 PM ET. The selloff defies the company’s record refinery throughput and $1.54 non-GAAP EPS, which handily beat estimates. Traders are scrambling to parse the disconnect between fundamentals and price action, with options data and technical indicators pointing to a bearish short-term outlook.

Earnings Optimism Clashes with Market Realities
Par Pacific’s Q2 results were a triumph: $1.89 billion in revenue, $137.8 million in Adjusted EBITDA, and a 214% Y/Y EPS surge. Yet the stock’s 10% drop suggests investors are pricing in near-term risks. The lack of full-year guidance, ongoing Wyoming refinery challenges, and delayed cash flow from the Hawaii SAF joint venture (expected to contribute in 2026) have triggered profit-taking. Additionally, the stock’s 86% YTD gain has created a short-term overbought condition, with RSI at 35.8 and MACD in bearish territory. The market is also wary of the company’s $647 million liquidity cushion being used for buybacks rather than growth investments.

Energy Refining Sector Mixed as Valero Slides
The energy refining sector is in flux, with Valero Energy (VLO) down 2.5% and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) down 3.95%. While PARR’s refining margins outperformed industry benchmarks (Hawaii at 119% margin capture), broader sector concerns about distillate demand and regulatory uncertainty are weighing on sentiment. PARR’s logistics and retail segments, however, remain resilient, contrasting with peers like CVR Energy (CVI), which faces a SELL rating from Argus.

Bearish Setup: Puts and ETFs to Watch
• 200-day MA: $19.02 (well below current price)
• RSI: 35.8 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.60 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $29.59–$35.17 (price near lower band)

The technicals suggest a continuation of the downtrend, with key support at $26.83 (intraday low) and resistance at $31.58 (intraday high). The RSI’s oversold reading may not reverse without a catalyst, and the MACD histogram’s negative divergence indicates weakening momentum. For aggressive traders, the PARR20250919P25 and PARR20251219P25 puts stand out: both have high implied volatility (54.02%–59.33%), moderate deltas (-0.31 to -0.68), and strong liquidity (turnover of 6,122–305,970). The September $25 put (PARR20250919P25) offers a 24.74% leverage ratio and a theta of -0.0091, making it ideal for a short-term bearish play. The December $25 put (PARR20251219P25) has a 5.16% leverage ratio and a theta of -0.0172, providing longer-term exposure. Under a 5% downside scenario (price at $26), the September put’s payoff would be $1.00 per contract, while the December put would yield $1.50. These options are best suited for traders expecting a breakdown below $26.83, with a stop-loss above $29.59.

Backtest Par Pacific Stock Performance
The backtest of PARR's performance after an intraday percentage change of -10% shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 52.45%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.50%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.12%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 10.68%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that PARR has a tendency to recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels in the following days.

Act Now: PARR at Pivotal Crossroads
Par Pacific’s 10% drop has created a critical juncture for investors. While the company’s operational strengths—record Hawaii throughput, $1.54 EPS, and $647 million liquidity—are intact, near-term risks like Wyoming refinery costs and delayed SAF project returns are fueling the selloff. The options market is pricing in a 54%–59% implied volatility range, reflecting heightened uncertainty. Traders should monitor the $26.83 support level and the sector leader Valero Energy (VLO), which is down 2.5%. A breakdown below $26.83 could trigger a test of the 200-day MA at $19.02. Aggressive bears may consider the PARR20250919P25 put for a short-term play, while longer-term investors should watch for a rebound above $29.59 to re-enter.