Pan American Silver Surges 7.44% on Earnings Hype, Ranks 381st in Dollar Volume Amid Silver/Gold Rally

Market Snapshot

Pan American Silver (PAAS) surged 7.44% on November 10, 2025, with a trading volume of $310 million—138.41% higher than the previous day’s volume and ranking 381st in dollar volume among U.S.-listed stocks. This outperformance aligns with the company’s year-to-date total return of 63.2%, significantly below the broader mining sector’s 83.8% gain. The rally appears linked to heightened anticipation for the firm’s upcoming third-quarter earnings report on November 12 and positive momentum from elevated silver and gold prices.

Key Drivers

Earnings Expectations and Historical Performance

The market is primed for PAAS’s Q3 results, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate projecting $0.49 per share in earnings—a 53.1% year-over-year increase from $0.39 in 2024. However, the estimate has declined 7.6% over the past 60 days, reflecting downward revisions from analysts. Despite this, PAAS has exceeded or matched estimates in three of the past four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 45.2%. The Zacks Earnings Surprise Predictor (ESP) currently signals a -1.15% bias, while the stock holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggesting tempered optimism.

Operational Performance and Commodity Price Tailwinds

Strong silver production in Q2 2025 underpinned recent gains, with output reaching 5.1 million ounces—6.9% above 2024 levels. Key operations like La Colorada (improved ventilation) and El Peñon (higher throughput) contributed, though declines at Cerro Moro and San Vicente offset some gains. Gold production, however, fell 18.2% year-over-year to 184,000 ounces, driven by the La Arena mine sale and Dolores’ transition to residual leaching. Analysts forecast Q3 silver production of 5.8 million ounces and gold output of 184,000 ounces, reflecting continued diversification toward silver.

Commodity prices provided a critical tailwind, with gold averaging $3,500 per ounce (up 41% year-over-year) and silver at $39.80 per ounce (up 34%). These levels, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand, are expected to bolster PAAS’s revenue. The company’s adjusted sales in Q2 2025 reached $811.9 million, a 21.2% year-over-year increase, with analysts projecting $867.8 million for Q3.

Cost Management and Institutional Investor Activity

PAAS’s cost-reduction strategy is another key driver, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for silver expected to fall to $16.25–$18.25 per ounce in 2025, down from $18.98 in 2024. Gold segment AISC is forecast at $1,525–$1,625 per ounce, benefiting from higher by-product credits at Cerro Moro. Institutional investors have shown mixed activity: AGF Management Ltd. added a $59.88 million stake in Q2, while Connor Clark & Lunn reduced holdings by 2.2%. These moves reflect divergent views on PAAS’s near-term prospects amid its low debt-to-equity ratio (0.15) and robust liquidity.

Analyst Sentiment and Peer Comparisons

Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with upgrades from CIBC ($62 price target) and Scotiabank ($47 target) contrasting with a Zacks downgrade to “Hold.” MarketBeat’s consensus remains “Moderate Buy,” with an average price target of $41.25. Peer comparisons highlight PAAS’s outperformance relative to Endeavour Silver (EXK), which reported a $0.01 adjusted loss in Q3 2025, and Avino Silver & Gold (ASM), which beat estimates with $0.07 EPS. PAAS’s Q2 results, including $0.43 EPS (versus $0.40 expected) and 18.3% revenue growth, underscore its operational resilience compared to peers.

The stock’s recent 2.9% intraday gain to $34.81—despite a 12.2% monthly decline—reflects a balance of short-term momentum and lingering macroeconomic uncertainties. With a market cap of $14.69 billion and a P/E ratio of 24.01, PAAS remains positioned to benefit from sustained demand for precious metals, provided operational execution aligns with analyst expectations.