Pan American Silver Plummets 4.15% Amid Q3 Earnings Volatility and Sector Uncertainty

Summary
• Pan American Silver (PAAS) trades at $44.168, down 4.15% intraday after hitting a 52-week high of $46.06
• Q3 2025 earnings missed estimates by $0.01, with revenue of $854.6M vs. $867.76M
• MAG Silver acquisition and $57 silver prices drive sector speculation

PAAS’s sharp intraday decline reflects mixed signals from its Q3 results and broader precious metals sector dynamics. Despite record cash flow and a 35% production boost from the MAG acquisition, the stock struggles to hold above key support levels. With silver prices at multi-year highs and sector peers like First Majestic Silver (AG) underperforming, investors are recalibrating risk exposure ahead of critical technical thresholds.

Q3 Earnings Disappointment and Acquisition Costs Weigh on Momentum
PAAS’s 4.15% intraday drop stems from a combination of factors: a $0.01 EPS miss in Q3 2025, elevated all-in sustaining costs post-MAG acquisition, and mixed analyst sentiment. While the company reported $251.7M in free cash flow and a 17% dividend hike, the acquisition’s $86M cash outlay and integration challenges have dampened short-term optimism. Additionally, silver prices, though near record highs, face profit-taking pressure as traders lock in gains ahead of potential Fed rate cuts in December.

Precious Metals Sector Mixed as First Majestic Silver (AG) Trails
The precious metals sector remains fragmented, with First Majestic Silver (AG) down 2.19% intraday despite PAAS’s recent production gains. While PAAS benefits from its MAG acquisition and higher-grade reserves, AG’s reliance on volatile byproduct metals and higher all-in costs make it more susceptible to near-term price swings. Sector-wide, silver’s 88% YOY rally has created profit-taking opportunities, but PAAS’s diversified production base and $560M cash balance position it as a relative safe haven within the group.

Bearish Options Play and RSI Overbought Alert
• 200-day average: 30.3858 (below current price)
• RSI: 75.32 (overbought)
• MACD: 1.76 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 31.05–45.12 (current price near upper band)

PAAS’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, with RSI at 75.32 and price near the upper Bollinger Band. A 5% downside scenario (to $42.00) could trigger significant options activity. Two top options for bearish exposure:

• PAAS20251212P44
- Put option, strike $44, expiration 12/12
- IV: 51.52% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 29.40% (high)
- Delta: -0.4676 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0058 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.1008 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 947 (liquid)
- Payoff at $42.00: $2.00 (max profit if price drops below $44)
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this contract ideal for a controlled downside bet.

• PAAS20251212P45
- Put option, strike $45, expiration 12/12
- IV: 59.71% (elevated)
- Leverage ratio: 19.17% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.5531 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0028 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.0865 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 7,098 (highly liquid)
- Payoff at $42.00: $3.00 (max profit if price drops below $45)
- Why: High turnover and delta make this a liquid, directional play on a deeper correction.

Aggressive bears may consider PAAS20251212P45 into a breakdown below $43.61 (intraday low).

Backtest Pan American Silver Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-study report summarising how Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) has historically traded after any −4 % (or larger) intraday plunge since 1 Jan 2022.Key take-aways (30-day look-ahead):• 82 trading days since 2022 saw an intraday drawdown of −4 % or worse from the open. • Average excess return versus buy-and-hold S&P-500 proxy after these events is modest (~+0.5 % after 1 day, rising to ~+3 % after 30 days) and statistically insignificant across horizons. • Win rate hovers near coin-flip (≈52 – 62 %) and does not materially improve over time. • No strong edge is apparent; thus, relying solely on “buy after −4 % intraday plunge” for PAAS does not confer a statistically robust advantage.Feel free to explore the interactive chart for detailed day-by-day curves and distribution statistics, or let me know if you’d like to adjust the event definition (e.g., −5 % threshold, different holding windows) or add risk-managed trading rules.

Watch $43.61 Support and AG’s Momentum for Sector Clues
PAAS’s 4.15% drop highlights near-term vulnerability as RSI overbought conditions and elevated costs weigh on momentum. While the stock remains above its 200-day average, a breakdown below $43.61 (intraday low) could trigger a test of the $31.05 Bollinger Band support. Investors should monitor First Majestic Silver (AG)’s -2.19% move as a sector barometer. For PAAS, a 5% downside scenario favors the PAAS20251212P45 put for leveraged exposure. Hold short positions into the 12/12 expiration unless a $46.06 retest confirms renewed bullish momentum.