Palantir Surges 3.15% on Military Contract Win: Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Palantir (PLTR) surges 3.15% intraday, trading at $187.57 amid a $448M Navy contract win.
• Leveraged ETFs like PLTU and PLTG rally 6–7%, amplifying PLTR’s momentum.
• Technicals show a short-term bullish trend with RSI at 67.3 and MACD crossing above the signal line.
• The stock’s 52-week high of $207.52 looms as a critical psychological barrier. This move reflects a strategic pivot in defense AI adoption, with PLTR’s ontology-based software now central to U.S. Navy supply chain management. The surge aligns with broader sector optimism in data processing and AI-driven logistics.

Navy Contract Ignites Palantir’s Bullish Momentum
Palantir’s 3.15% intraday gain is directly tied to its $448 million contract with the U.S. Navy to manage nuclear submarine fleet supply chains via its ShipOS platform. The Maritime Industrial Base (MIB) Program, in collaboration with NAVSEA, will deploy Palantir’s ontology-based software to optimize logistics and operational decision-making. This win underscores the company’s growing influence in defense AI, where real-time data integration is critical. Analysts at Bank of America highlight that governments increasingly prioritize platforms capable of cross-functional military operations, positioning Palantir as a key beneficiary of defense modernization budgets.

Data Processing Sector Gains as Palantir Outpaces Peers
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector is witnessing robust growth, with the North America BPO market projected to expand at 7.23% CAGR through 2033. Palantir’s 3.15% gain outpaces IBM’s 0.71% intraday rise, reflecting its unique positioning in defense AI. While IBM focuses on enterprise cloud and AI, Palantir’s ontology-driven approach to military logistics and supply chain management differentiates it in a sector increasingly prioritizing specialized data analytics. The sector’s growth is fueled by cost optimization and digital transformation, aligning with Palantir’s recent contract wins.

Leveraged ETFs and Call Options Lead the Charge
• 200-day average: 142.93 (well below current price)
• RSI: 67.3 (overbought but not extreme)
• MACD: -0.1158 (crossing above signal line at -2.38)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price at 187.57, above the 171.66 middle band
• Key support/resistance: 181.02–182.06 (30D support), 177.88–180.55 (200D support)
• Leveraged ETFs: PLTU (+7.75%) and PLTG (+6.56%) amplify PLTR’s 3.15% move, reflecting aggressive positioning by retail and institutional investors.

Top Options Contracts:
• PLTR20251219C190 (Call, $190 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 44.55% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 37.09% (high)
- Delta: 0.4866 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.6403 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0286 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $3.198M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $187.57 → $196.95 → $6.95 per contract. This call offers high leverage with a 5% upside target, ideal for aggressive bulls.
• PLTR20251219C195 (Call, $195 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 44.13% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 60.90% (very high)
- Delta: 0.3482 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.5168 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.0268 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $1.186M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $187.57 → $196.95 → $1.95 per contract. This contract balances leverage and time decay, suitable for a 5% target.

Trading Setup: PLTR’s 187.57 level is above its 30D and 100D averages, with RSI near overbought territory. The 52-week high at 207.52 remains a key resistance. Aggressive bulls may consider PLTR20251219C190 into a break above 188.44 (intraday high). If 190 breaks, PLTR20251219C195 offers higher leverage for a 5% upside. Both contracts benefit from high gamma and moderate IV, making them responsive to short-term volatility.

Backtest Palantir Stock Performance
Palantir's (PLTR) performance after a 3% intraday surge on December 10, 2025, can be analyzed by examining the stock's trajectory from 2022 to the present day. The 3% surge was triggered by a $448 million U.S. Navy contract for nuclear submarine supply chain management, which highlights Palantir's growing role in defense technology and its ShipOS platform.1. 2022 Low Point and Subsequent Recovery: Palantir's stock faced significant challenges in 2022, with a notable decline that saw it crash more than 80% from its previous highs. This downturn was partly due to losses incurred from its portfolio of businesses that went public via special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). The company's failure to spot patterns in its own investment strategy led to substantial losses, with realized and unrealized losses on the SPAC portfolio reaching 75% by the end of September 2022, amounting to approximately $333 million.2. Recovery and Growth: Following the low point in 2022, Palantir's stock began to recover. The company's strategic shift and the winding down of its SPAC investment program in May 2022 signaled a move towards more sustainable growth. Palantir's revenue from its investees reached approximately $150 million, with expectations of generating an additional $755 million in the coming years.3. Recent Surge and Market Response: The recent 3% intraday surge on December 10, 2025, marks a significant positive development for Palantir. This surge was driven by the Navy contract, which positions Palantir as a critical player in defense AI integration. The stock's dynamic PE of 328x raises questions about sustainability, but the company's strong fundamentals and contract wins suggest short-term momentum is intact.4. Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment: Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest that the stock is nearing overbought territory, which could indicate a potential for a price correction. However, the bullish trend is supported by key support and resistance levels, and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average.5. Comparative Performance: When compared to the broader technology sector, Palantir's performance over the past year has been impressive, with a 150.5% surge, outperforming many of its heavyweight tech peers.In conclusion, Palantir's performance after the 3% intraday surge on December 10, 2025, reflects a stock that has rebounded from significant challenges in 2022 to become a strong player in the defense technology sector. The company's strategic shifts, contract wins, and technical indicators suggest a positive outlook, although caution is warranted due to high valuation metrics.

Palantir’s Bull Run Gains Traction: Watch 190 Breakout for Next Move
Palantir’s 3.15% surge is driven by a strategic defense contract and a sector-wide shift toward AI-driven logistics. The stock’s technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with the 190 level acting as a critical inflection point. If 190 breaks, the 52-week high at 207.52 becomes a viable target. Conversely, a pullback to 181.02–182.06 support could trigger a consolidation phase. Investors should monitor the PLTR20251219C190 and PLTR20251219C195 options for liquidity and leverage. Meanwhile, sector leader IBM’s 0.71% gain highlights the broader BPO market’s resilience. Action: Buy PLTR20251219C190 if 188.44 (intraday high) holds; exit if 182.75 (intraday low) breaks.