Palantir Q4 Earnings Preview: High Expectations as Stock Hits Record Highs

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is set to report Q4 2024 earnings on Monday, February 3, after the market close, following a blockbuster year where the stock surged 340%. Wall Street analysts expect adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11, reflecting a 39% year-over-year increase, while revenue is projected to grow 28% to $776 million. These numbers are at the high end of Palantir’s own guidance of $767-$771 million, underscoring the company’s continued momentum. U.S. commercial revenue is expected to climb 52% to $199 million, a key area of growth as Palantir expands beyond its traditional government clientele. The stock has rallied sharply ahead of earnings, hitting an all-time intraday high of $84.80 on December 24, and after a brief pullback to its 50-day moving average, PLTR is once again approaching record levels.

Palantir is best known for its AI-driven data analytics software, which is widely used in intelligence gathering, counterterrorism, and national security. The company has been a major player in government contracts but is now making big strides in the commercial sector, where its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is driving rapid adoption. CEO Alex Karp has been vocal about the "unrelenting demand" for AI, with Palantir positioned as a key provider of secure and scalable AI solutions for enterprises. Some of its recent partnerships and deals include an alliance with Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) for defense analytics, a cloud computing partnership with Oracle (ORCL), and collaborations with L3Harris (LHX) and Amazon Web Services (AWS) to support U.S. intelligence and defense agencies. With Palantir’s government revenue expected to remain strong, and commercial adoption accelerating, investors will be watching closely to see if Q4 results extend its streak of revenue and EPS beats.

What to Watch: Key Metrics and Expectations

EPS Expectation: $0.11 per share, up 39% YoY.

Revenue Expectation: $776 million, up 28% YoY.

U.S. Commercial Growth: Expected to rise 52% to $199 million.

Cross-Sector Adoption of AIP: Palantir hosted its fifth AIP conference (AIPCon 5), showcasing AI-driven innovations in healthcare, supply chain management, and enterprise analytics.

Government Revenue: Q3 saw 40% YoY growth—will this trend continue?

Palantir has a strong track record of exceeding expectations and has repeatedly guided above consensus estimates. If it delivers another beat-and-raise quarter, the stock could extend its record-setting run. However, a miss on revenue growth, particularly in commercial AI adoption, could lead to profit-taking, especially as the stock trades at a rich valuation of 30x 2026 sales.

PLTR Stock: Momentum, Valuation, and Risks

Palantir’s stock has been on a tear, rallying 9% so far in 2025, with five of the last six months posting gains. The post-election environment has been another tailwind, as several members of the Trump administration have deep ties to Palantir. David Sacks, a longtime associate of Peter Thiel, has been tapped as Trump’s AI and crypto czar, reinforcing the view that AI will play an expanded role in homeland security and defense. The company is also rumored to be in talks with Elon Musk’s SpaceX and OpenAI to form a tech consortium aimed at bidding on U.S. government contracts, adding to its long-term strategic positioning.

However, valuation remains a concern, with some analysts questioning the sustainability of Palantir’s rally. While the company has posted accelerating revenue growth for five consecutive quarters, its ability to monetize generative AI in commercial sectors remains uncertain. Wall Street largely expects AI-driven revenue to become more material in 2025-2026, but any indication that adoption is slower than expected could weigh on the stock.

With Palantir extended from a technical standpoint, and earnings season increasing volatility, investors may use this report to lock in profits. If Palantir delivers another strong beat, the stock could break through its December highs of $84.80, but a miss could trigger a more meaningful pullback. Given the AI hype cycle and Palantir’s dominant position in data analytics, this report will be one of the most closely watched earnings releases of the week.

Q3 Recap

Palantir Technologies delivered a strong Q3 earnings report back in November, with revenue of $725.5 million (+30% YoY), surpassing the Street’s $705.1 million estimate. The standout performance came from U.S. commercial revenue, which soared 54% YoY, reflecting strong demand for its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). Analysts at Wedbush called it an "eye-popping quarter" and raised their price target from $45 to $57, citing AIP’s growing traction across enterprises. Palantir also raised its full-year 2024 revenue forecast to $2.807 billion, with U.S. commercial growth projected to exceed 50%. The company’s top 20 customers now generate an average of $60 million each, underscoring its deepening relationships in key industries.

The government segment also showed renewed strength, growing 33% YoY, fueled by 40% growth in U.S. federal contracts. This defied Morgan Stanley’s prior concerns about Palantir’s maturing government business and limited free cash flow upside, leading the firm to remove its Underweight rating and $20 price target. Analysts noted Palantir’s strong AI positioning and sustained revenue acceleration, which has now exceeded 30% YoY for five consecutive quarters. With operating margins at 38%, Palantir is approaching a "rule of 68" profile, reinforcing its profitability and AI-driven growth story. While valuation concerns remain, improving fundamentals and growing AI adoption have forced skeptics to reconsider their bearish stance on the stock.