Palantir Plunges 4.31% as Seagate Surpasses It—What’s Next for the AI Giant?

Summary
• Palantir (PLTR) trades at $149.41, down 4.31% intraday, with a 52-week high of $190 and low of $32.47.
• Seagate (STX) outperforms PLTR with a 113% YTD gain, signaling a shift in S&P 500 leadership.
• PLTR’s 50-day moving average remains intact, but its 21-day ATR of 4.72% highlights volatility.
• The stock’s Relative Strength Rating of 98 and EPS Rating of 98 suggest strong fundamentals, yet recent insider selling and valuation concerns weigh on sentiment.

Palantir’s sharp intraday decline reflects a broader sector rotation and valuation pressures. With Seagate’s AI-driven storage rally and PLTR’s stretched P/E ratio of 327.68, investors are recalibrating expectations. The stock’s 148.04 intraday low and 158.96 high underscore a volatile session, testing key technical levels as the market digests mixed signals from commercial AI adoption and government contract optimism.

Seagate’s AI Storage Rally and PLTR’s Valuation Pressures
Palantir’s 4.31% intraday drop is driven by a combination of sector rotation and valuation concerns. Seagate’s 113% YTD gain—fueled by AI data center demand—has shifted investor focus to more tangible AI infrastructure plays. PLTR’s 360x forward P/E ratio, while justified by 57% EPS growth estimates, appears overextended compared to Seagate’s 528% EPS forecast. Recent insider selling by CEO Alex Karp and mixed Wall Street sentiment (current ‘Hold’ rating) further pressure the stock. Despite a 93% Q2 commercial revenue surge, PLTR’s lack of AI product pricing transparency and reliance on government contracts create uncertainty, especially as the Trump administration’s Golden Dome defense shield remains unmaterialized.

Software Sector Volatility as Microsoft Slides
The Application Software sector faces mixed momentum, with Microsoft (MSFT) down 2.18% intraday. While PLTR’s 98 RS Rating outperforms MSFT’s 7% YTD gain, the broader sector’s 7% decline since late July reflects growing concerns over AI’s impact on per-seat software licensing models. Seagate’s 95 RS Rating and 82 EPS Rating highlight a shift toward AI infrastructure, contrasting PLTR’s software-centric growth narrative. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has advanced 7% this year but trends downward, signaling investor caution as AI-driven job displacement fears linger.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on PLTR’s Volatility
• 200-day average: 138.7574 (below current price)
• RSI: 21.59 (oversold)
• MACD: -1.34 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 141.53 (lower band) vs. 192.65 (upper band)
• 21-day ATR: 4.72% (high volatility)

PLTR’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with the 141.53 lower Bollinger Band and 138.75 200-day average as critical support levels. A 5% downside scenario to $141.94 could trigger put option activity. Two top options stand out:

• PLTR20250912P145 (Put, $145 strike, 2025-09-12 expiration)
- IV: 50.40% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 77.53% (high)
- Delta: -0.2714 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0097 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0294 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $1.78M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% down: $3.06 per contract (max(0, 145 - 141.94))
- Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma make this put ideal for a controlled downside bet, with low theta erosion.

• PLTR20250912C150 (Call, $150 strike, 2025-09-12 expiration)
- IV: 49.07% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 29.94% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5622 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.6872 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0359 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $4.01M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% down: $0.00 (max(0, 141.94 - 150))
- Why it stands out: High gamma and moderate delta offer potential for rapid premium erosion if PLTR breaks below $150, making it a short-term volatility play.

Trading Insight: Aggressive bears may consider PLTR20250912P145 into a breakdown below $145, while PLTR20250912C150 offers a high-gamma short against a $150 pivot. Monitor the 141.53 lower Bollinger Band and 138.75 200-day average for directional clues.

Backtest Palantir Stock Performance

PLTR at Crossroads: Defend $141.53 or Face Further Selloff
Palantir’s 4.31% intraday drop reflects a critical juncture for the stock. While its 98 RS Rating and 93% Q2 commercial revenue growth highlight resilience, the 360x P/E ratio and Seagate’s AI infrastructure outperformance create headwinds. Key levels to watch include the 141.53 lower Bollinger Band and 138.75 200-day average. A breakdown below $141.53 could trigger a retest of the 141.527 lower Bollinger Band, while a rebound above $150 may reignite bullish momentum. Sector leader Microsoft’s -2.18% intraday move underscores broader software sector fragility. Action: Short-term traders should prioritize PLTR20250912P145 for a controlled downside bet, while long-term bulls may wait for a $138.75 200-day average retest before re-entering.