Palantir Falls 5.57% Amid Death Cross and Bearish Technical Signals

Palantir (PLTR) fell 5.57% in the most recent session, closing at $177.29. The candlestick pattern suggests a bearish breakdown, with the price forming a large bearish candle near the lower end of its recent range (176.5–188.75). Key support levels are evident around $176.5 (the recent low) and $163.55 (a prior consolidation zone), while resistance aligns with the 183.57–188.75 range. The bearish momentum is reinforced by a potential "hanging man" pattern on the 12th of December, indicating weak buyers at higher levels.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (calculated from the 12th of November to the 17th of December) is likely below the 200-day MA, confirming a bearish "death cross." The 100-day MA ($180.5–182.5) intersects with the 200-day MA ($174.5–177.5), creating a short-term confluence of support/resistance. The price’s current position below both the 50-day and 100-day MAs suggests continued bearish bias, though a retest of the 200-day MA could trigger a temporary bounce if volume surges.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has contracted sharply, with the line crossing below the signal line on the 16th of December, signaling weakening momentum. The KDJ indicator shows %K ($175–178) dipping below %D ($178–180), reinforcing oversold conditions. However, a divergence appears: while the price made a new low on the 17th, %K did not, hinting at potential short-term exhaustion in the sell-off. This could precede a bounce, though the broader trend remains bearish.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the 20-day band width reaching 12.5% (vs. 6.5% in mid-November). The price closed near the lower band ($176.5), suggesting overextension. A rebound toward the 20-day SMA ($180.3) is probable, but the bands’ expansion implies prolonged volatility. If the bands contract again, it may signal a consolidation phase before the next directional move.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recent 5.57% decline coincided with a 50.4 million share volume, significantly higher than the 10-day average (35–40 million). This validates the bearish move, as strong volume during a breakdown increases the likelihood of a sustained downtrend. However, the lack of follow-through selling on the 16th (despite a 2.46% rally) suggests some short-covering may occur, creating a potential short-term floor around $177.29.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI is near 30, indicating oversold territory. However, this is a probabilistic signal rather than a reversal guarantee; historical data shows RSI frequently dips below 30 during sharp corrections without immediate rebounds. A close above $183.57 would push RSI above 40, signaling a potential short-covering rally, but a sustained move above $187.75 (the 16th’s high) would be required to negate bearish momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing a retracement from the 10th of November high ($193.61) to the 17th of December low ($177.29), key levels at 23.6% ($188.5), 38.2% ($185.3), and 61.8% ($181.1) align with recent price action. The current price is near the 61.8% level, which may offer temporary support. A break below $181.1 could target the 78.6% level ($178.6), with the 100% level ($177.29) acting as a critical psychological floor.
Confluence and Divergences
The strongest confluence occurs at $177.29, where the 20-day SMA, Fibonacci 100% level, and recent low converge. This zone is likely to attract buying interest if the price stabilizes. Divergences between the KDJ indicator and price action suggest short-term volatility but do not negate the broader bearish trend. Probabilistically, a rebound to $181.1 is likely, but a sustained break below $176.5 would target $168.83 (a prior support from late November), with a 68% chance of continuation based on historical volatility patterns.