Pager Explosions in Lebanon Spark Pentagon's Fears of Ground War
Following two consecutive days of pager/walkie-talkie explosion incidents causing significant casualties among military organization members and civilians in Lebanon, this development has greatly intensified the Pentagon's concerns over a potential ground war between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
A senior U.S. Department of Defense official stated in an interview, I am very concerned about this spiraling out of control.
According to an insider, the Israeli military has recently moved an assault team and a paratrooper division from the southern part of the country to the north, after the division had been operating in Gaza for several months.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also confirmed this information on Wednesday. The IDF stated that the 98th Division had been deployed to the northern region of Israel to address the tense situation along the Israel-Lebanon border.
It is reported that the division consists of approximately 10,000 to 20,000 soldiers, who had withdrawn from Khan Yunis in southern Gaza at the end of August.
The Pentagon is Deeply Worried
In fact, since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October last year, the Biden administration has been concerned about a full-scale conflict along Israel's northern border, which could lead to the involvement of the U.S. and even Iran.
A source revealed to the media that just before the pager explosion incidents on Tuesday and Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin had told other senior officials at the Pentagon on Monday that he was worried Israel might soon launch an offensive.
Although U.S. officials emphasized that they have not yet seen more obvious signs of an impending Israeli invasion, such as the mobilization of reserve troops, and even if Israel makes a decision, it might take the Israeli military several weeks to prepare for a large-scale offensive. However, relevant U.S. Department of Defense officials still emphasized that Israel could order a smaller-scale operation more quickly without taking other significant military actions.
In this regard, Israeli officials also stated on Wednesday that their conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon is entering a new phase unless the militant organization withdraws from southern Lebanon and stops cross-border rocket and mortar attacks.
We are at the start of a new phase in the war - we are allocating resources and forces to the northern arena and our mission is clear: ensuring the safe return of Israel's northern communities to their homes, said Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday in a message posted on X.
U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday that there is still a way to end the crisis through diplomacy rather than war. Speaking about the potential conflict, he said, Nothing is inevitable.
Will the Situation Deteriorate?
Currently, Hezbollah has promised to retaliate for the pager explosion incidents caused by Israel.
According to statistics from the Lebanese government, the walkie-talkie explosion attack on Wednesday resulted in at least 20 deaths and over 450 injuries, while the pager attack on Tuesday resulted in at least 12 deaths and over 2,800 injuries. The Lebanese government accused Israel of orchestrating the attacks.
Hezbollah previously launched hundreds of rockets into northern Israel, most of which were aimed at military targets and were intercepted by Israel's defense systems. Currently, Hezbollah still possesses a powerful arsenal, including approximately 150,000 missiles capable of striking any city in Israel, as well as 30,000 professional soldiers, many of whom have fought in the Syrian civil war for a decade.
According to a statement from the Israeli Defense Minister's office, Gallant told U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein in Tel Aviv on Monday, The only way left to return the residents of the North to their homes is via military action.
Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder said that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's response was to urge Israel to give diplomatic negotiations a chance to succeed. A U.S. Department of Defense official stated that the impression given to Secretary of Defense Austin was that Israel was considering new military action against Lebanon.
Currently, the U.S. has deployed an aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, in the Middle East, as well as an amphibious assault ship carrying Marines and helicopters, the USS Georgia, and other vessels in Greece. In addition, the U.S. has dispatched an F-22 fighter squadron and expanded air defense capabilities in the region to protect the ground forces stationed there.
The Biden administration has been warning Americans to leave Lebanon for months due to the potential escalation of hostilities. It is reported that the U.S. has plans to evacuate Americans and other non-combatants from Lebanon. U.S. Department of Defense officials stated that an emergency plan includes evacuating approximately 50,000 U.S. citizens, residents, and their families to Cyprus. The U.S. government estimates that as of 2022, about 86,000 Americans are living in Lebanon.