Paccar (PCAR) Surges to 52-Week High Amid Tariff Tailwinds and Analyst Caution

Summary
• Paccar (PCAR) surges 2.69% to $122.21, hitting its 52-week high of $122.65
• Intraday range spans $119.48 to $122.65, with turnover at 1.55 million shares
• Analysts highlight Class 8 order surge and insider buying but warn of near-term earnings risks

Paccar’s stock has ignited a sharp rally amid a surge in Class 8 truck orders and institutional buying, propelling it to a 52-week high. However, analysts caution that near-term earnings and revenue declines could temper the bullish momentum. The stock’s intraday volatility and technical indicators suggest a critical juncture for traders.

Class 8 Orders and Insider Buying Drive Rally
Paccar’s 2.69% intraday surge to $122.21 is fueled by a surge in Class 8 truck orders and a wave of institutional buying. Recent filings show Meeder Asset Management, Sumitomo Mitsui DS, and Robeco Institutional Asset Management collectively purchasing over 90,000 shares in the past two weeks. Additionally, the company’s 52-week high aligns with a broader industry trend of tariff-driven demand for domestic truck production. However, analysts at Zacks and Citigroup note that while the order surge is positive, near-term earnings risks—stemming from weak freight demand and rising input costs—could pressure the stock if not offset by pricing power.

Truck Sector Faces Prolonged Downturn as Tariffs Weigh
The Trucks, Buses, and Parts sector is grappling with a prolonged downturn, with McKinsey & Company forecasting a 10-25% drop in North American commercial vehicle production in H1 2026. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imported trucks have exacerbated cost pressures, forcing fleets to delay replacements. While Paccar’s rally reflects optimism around its market share gains, sector peers like Oshkosh (OSK) are also rising (up 3.11% intraday), but the broader industry faces structural headwinds. Paccar’s ability to pass on tariff costs through pricing will be critical to sustaining its outperformance.

Options and ETFs Highlight Short-Term Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 3.09 (above signal line 2.73), RSI: 70.97 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $107.25–$120.48 (current price near upper band)
• 200-day MA: $98.73 (well below current price), 30-day MA: $112.67 (supportive)

Paccar’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with the RSI nearing overbought territory and the MACD histogram expanding. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high at $122.65 and the upper Bollinger Band at $120.48. A break above $122.65 could trigger a retest of the $125 psychological level, while a pullback to the 200-day MA would test conviction in the rally.

Top Options Picks:
• PCAR20260220C123.6 (Call, $123.6 strike, Feb 20 expiration):
- IV: 28.87% (moderate), Leverage: 32.08%, Delta: 0.466 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0848 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0354 (high sensitivity to price moves), Turnover: 247,644 (liquid)
- This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the rally. A 5% upside to $128.32 would yield a payoff of $4.72 per contract, or 38.5% return on the $12.25 premium.
• PCAR20260220P118.6 (Put, $118.6 strike, Feb 20 expiration):
- IV: 28.52% (moderate), Leverage: 43.54%, Delta: -0.355 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0304 (moderate time decay), Gamma: 0.0336 (high sensitivity to price moves), Turnover: 2,070 (liquid)
- This put provides downside protection if the rally falters. A 5% pullback to $116.10 would yield a payoff of $2.50 per contract, or 57.1% return on the $4.37 premium.

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bulls may consider PCAR20260220C123.6 into a break above $122.65, while cautious traders might hedge with PCAR20260220P118.6 to lock in gains.

Backtest Paccar Stock Performance
The backtest of Pacific Coast Airlines (PCAR) performance after a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 56.08%, the 10-day win rate is 54.59%, and the 30-day win rate is 57.32%, indicating that PCAR tends to experience positive returns in the short term following the intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 4.73%, which occurred on day 58 after the surge, suggesting that there is potential for further gains in the days following the initial increase.

Bullish Momentum Intact, but Near-Term Earnings Risks Loom
Paccar’s rally to a 52-week high underscores its resilience amid a challenging sector environment, driven by Class 8 order strength and institutional buying. However, the stock’s overbought RSI and analysts’ caution about near-term earnings suggest a potential consolidation phase. Traders should monitor the $122.65 level for a breakout confirmation and the $118.60 support zone. Meanwhile, sector leader Oshkosh (OSK) rising 3.11% highlights the sector’s mixed dynamics. Investors are advised to balance bullish exposure with downside hedges, particularly as Paccar’s upcoming earnings report could sway sentiment sharply.