Paccar Jumps 6.10% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Turn Bullish

Paccar (PCAR) advanced 6.10% to close at $98.58 in the latest session, rebounding sharply from an intraday low of $92.47 to challenge resistance near $99.06. This decisive bullish candlestick, coupled with elevated volume, establishes the immediate technical context for the following analysis.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session formed a robust bullish engulfing pattern, overpowering the prior three sessions' bearish momentum. Key support now resides at $92.50, aligning with the July 22 low and reinforced by the June 24 low of $91.65. Immediate resistance is anchored at $99.06 (July 22 high), with major resistance at $100.60 (July 10 peak). A close above $100 would signal bullish continuation, while failure to hold $92.50 may indicate weakness.
Moving Average Theory
The closing price of $98.58 sits above all major moving averages, suggesting a bullish trend structure. The 50-day MA (approximately $95.50) maintains an upward trajectory above the 100-day MA (~$94.00), both positioned above the rising 200-day MA (~$92.80). This configuration signals intermediate-term strength. The price action recently rebounded from the 50-day MA support, reinforcing its significance as dynamic support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has likely crossed into positive territory after the 6.10% surge, generating a fresh bullish crossover signal as momentum shifts upward. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator exhibits a bullish hook from oversold territory, with the %K line accelerating above 50. This confluence suggests building upside momentum, though the magnitude of the single-day move warrants monitoring for potential consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Price rebounded sharply from the lower Bollinger Band (approximately $92.50) to challenge the upper band near $99.20. The expansion from the narrow bandwidth observed in mid-July indicates increasing volatility favoring bulls. A sustained close above the upper band may signal overbought conditions, while a rejection could trigger retracement toward the 20-day moving average midline near $95.60.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 6.10% advance occurred on volume of 7.15 million shares—notably exceeding the 20-day average volume by approximately 65%. This high-volume confirmation validates the bullish breakout, suggesting institutional participation. Volume intensity now matches the March-April peak volatility, indicating strong conviction behind the move.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI calculates to approximately 55 using the standard formula, rebounding sharply from oversold territory but remaining below the overbought threshold. This positioning suggests room for additional upside before technical exhaustion. The RSI's reversal from sub-40 levels during last week's consolidation adds credence to the bullish reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the July decline from $100.60 (high) to $92.47 (low) shows the current close at $98.58 has surpassed the 61.8% retracement level ($97.50). The 78.6% retracement aligns with $99.20, creating immediate resistance confluence with the July 22 high. A breakout above $99.20 would target a full retracement to $100.60. Longer-term Fibonacci levels from the March high ($116.80) to May low ($85.10) place the 38.2% retracement at $96.70, now acting as support.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Bullish confluence appears at the $95.50–$96.70 zone, where the 50-day MA, volume-weighted support, and 38.2% long-term Fibonacci level converge. The MACD-KDJ synchronization and volume-backed price action reinforce upside potential. However, caution is warranted as RSI divergence could develop if prices approach the psychological $100 level without corresponding momentum amplification. The Bollinger Band expansion warrants monitoring for volatility contraction that may precede consolidation.