Pacasmayo Cement Outlook: A Weak Technical Picture with Strong Fundamentals

Market SnapshotTakeaway: The technical outlook for CPAC.N is weak, but fundamentals are strong. With an internal diagnostic technical score of just 3.69, the chart setup suggests caution, while the fundamental model scores a high 8.16.

News Highlights

Recent news points to mixed signals for construction-related stocks, with implications for Pacasmayo Cement. Here are key updates: BofA upgrades Construction Partners with a raised price target to $107. The firm has expanded into Texas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, signaling optimism about market expansion. While not directly related to CPAC.N, it reflects positive sentiment toward the sector. Construction Partners’ Q1 results exceeded revenue expectations by 9.7%, hitting $561.6 million. This reinforces broader confidence in the infrastructure space, but CPAC.N remains under pressure technically. Yahoo Finance highlights geopolitical shifts in corporate control, like the proposed "golden share" in US Steel. While this doesn’t affect Pacasmayo Cement directly, it shows the regulatory environment is increasingly active in major deals—possibly affecting capital flows.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain cautious. The simple average rating is 2.00 and the performance-weighted rating is 1.39, both reflecting a bearish bias. Only one active analyst (Adrian Huerta of JP Morgan) has recommended a "Sell" over the past 20 days, but the historical win rate is 100%—even if it’s based on a single recommendation, which ended with a -12.91% return. This shows analyst consensus is low and not aligned with the recent price rise of 57.86%.

On fundamentals, the model scores show strong value: Price-to-Book (PB): 3 with a value of 2.29 Price-to-Cash Flow (PCF): 2 with a value of -21.55 Price-to-Sales (PS): 3 with a value of 587.40 EV/EBIT: 1 with a value of -296.79 Return on Equity (ROE): 2 with a value of 12.42% Cash Flow from Operations (CFOA): 2 with a value of -0.08 Net Profit Margin (NPM): 0 with a value of 12.46%

These metrics suggest Pacasmayo Cement is attractively valued, though cash flow and profit margins remain weak. The internal diagnostic fundamental score of 8.16 reflects strong value potential despite some operational headwinds.

Money-Flow Trends

Despite the weak technical picture, money-flow patterns show mixed activity. The overall inflow ratio is 0.4674, suggesting moderate buying. However, the block trend is negative, with large and extra-large institutional investors showing outflows. Meanwhile, retail sentiment is slightly positive, with a Small_trend of positive and an inflow ratio of 0.5037.

This divergence implies that while retail traders are accumulating, large institutions are selling or avoiding the stock. Given the internal diagnostic fund-flow score of 7.15 (classified as "good"), it’s a somewhat encouraging sign for patient investors, though caution is still warranted.

Key Technical Signals

The technical setup for Pacasmayo Cement is bearish, with 3 bearish indicators and no bullish ones in the most recent 5-day period. The internal diagnostic technical score is a weak 3.69, indicating poor momentum and lack of clear direction.

Recent chart patterns include: MACD Golden Cross (score: 3.56): A mixed signal with average returns slightly negative. WR Overbought (score: 3.41): Neutral bias with a 51.72% win rate, but not strong enough to turn the tide. Long Upper Shadow (score: 2.09): A bearish pattern with a 40% win rate and negative average returns.

These signals suggest the stock is struggling to find buyers at higher levels. Over the past few weeks, the most active indicators were on December 11 (MACD Golden Cross) and December 12 (WR Overbought and Long Upper Shadow). This mix of signals confirms the key insight: “Bearish signals are obviously dominant (3 bearish vs 0 bullish).”

Conclusion

Consider waiting for a clearer trend before entering. While the fundamentals are strong and money flows show moderate support, the technical outlook is weak. With a low internal diagnostic technical score of 3.69 and a bearish consensus from technical indicators, now may not be the best time to initiate a long position. Investors are advised to watch for a pullback or more definitive signs of strength before taking action.