CPAC Soars 55% on Holcim Acquisition Hype: Is This the Start of a Cement Sector Revolution?

Summary
• Holcim’s $5.1B bid for 50.01% of CPAC triggers 55.54% intraday surge
• Stock surges from $8.8 to $11.3, hitting 52W high
• EBITDA multiple of 9x signals premium valuation over current market cap
• Turnover jumps 3.76% as investors bet on regulatory approval in H1 2026

Pacasmayo Cement (CPAC) has ignited a frenzy in the NYSE, surging 55.54% to $10.87 as Holcim’s landmark acquisition of a controlling stake sparks a re-rating of the Peruvian cement giant. The stock’s meteoric rise—from an intraday low of $8.8 to a 52-week high of $11.3—reflects a market-wide conviction in the strategic value of Latin America’s most profitable cement producer. With regulatory hurdles expected to clear in early 2026, the question now is whether this surge is a fleeting euphoria or the dawn of a new era for CPAC.

Holcim’s $5.1B Bid Ignites EBITDA Premium Hype
The 55.54% intraday surge in CPAC is directly attributable to Holcim’s $5.1 billion acquisition of 50.01% of Pacasmayo Cement at a 9x EBITDA multiple, a valuation 30% above its current market cap. This transaction, the largest in the cement sector in 2025, signals Holcim’s confidence in Pacasmayo’s 68-year legacy of operational excellence and its 10.2% YoY growth in Peru’s cement consumption. The premium pricing—based on record TTM EBITDA—has redefined the sector’s valuation benchmarks, triggering a speculative rush as investors anticipate regulatory approval by H1 2026. The stock’s breakout above the 52W high of $11.3 further amplifies momentum, with technical indicators confirming a short-term bullish trend.

Cement Sector Volatility Amid Holcim’s Global Play
While CPAC’s 55.54% surge dwarfs sector peers, CEMEX (CX) fell 0.99% on profit-taking, highlighting divergent market sentiment. Holcim’s $5.1B bid—valuing Pacasmayo at 9x EBITDA—sets a new benchmark for Latin American cement assets, contrasting with CEMEX’s 14x P/E ratio. This disparity underscores CPAC’s unique position as a high-margin, low-debt asset in a sector grappling with decarbonization costs and geopolitical supply chain risks. The acquisition also aligns with Holcim’s global strategy to consolidate emerging markets, a move that could pressure smaller regional players like UltraTech Cement and Ambuja Cements.

Capitalizing on CPAC’s Breakout: ETFs and Technical Plays
• RSI: 74.17 (overbought)
• MACD: -0.0676 (bullish crossover near signal line)
• Bollinger Bands: $6.27–$7.38 (current price at 73% upper band)
• 200D MA: $6.31 (price at 71% above)
• Kline Pattern: Short-term bullish trend confirmed

CPAC’s technicals scream short-term momentum, with RSI at overbought levels and MACD hinting at a bullish crossover. The stock’s 55.54% surge has pushed it 71% above its 200D MA, suggesting a continuation of the rally unless it retests the $8.8 intraday low. While no options data is available, leveraged ETFs like XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) could amplify exposure to the cement sector’s re-rating. Aggressive bulls should monitor the $11.3 52W high as a key resistance; a break above this could trigger a 15% extension to $13.00.

Backtest Pacasmayo Cement Stock Performance
The performance of CPAC (Consumer Staples ETF) after a 56% intraday increase from 2022 to now has been mixed. While the ETF experienced a maximum return of 1.00% over 30 days, the overall trend was slightly negative, with a 30-day return of 0.26% and a 10-day return of -0.09%. The 3-day win rate was 53.33%, indicating that the ETF was positive in over half of the short-term intervals tested.

CPAC’s $11.3 High Is a Gateway—Act Before H1 2026 Regulatory Hurdle
The 55.54% surge in CPAC is not a flash in the pan but a strategic re-rating driven by Holcim’s premium bid. With the stock trading at 71% above its 200D MA and RSI at overbought levels, the immediate focus is on sustaining the $11.3 52W high. A breakdown below $8.8 would invalidate the bullish case, while a close above $11.3 could unlock $13.00. Investors should also watch CEMEX (CX) at -0.99%—its underperformance highlights CPAC’s unique catalyst. For now, the playbook is clear: hold longs above $9.75 and consider tight stops below $8.8. The H1 2026 regulatory timeline is the ultimate wildcard—get positioned before the sector’s next inflection.