Ovid Therapeutics Surges 11.88% on Royalty Sale and Analyst Upgrades: Is This a Short-Term Rally or a New Trend?

Summary
• Ovid Therapeutics (OVID) surges 11.88% intraday to $0.9401, hitting a 52-week high of $1.02
• Company sells future royalties of Ganaxolone to Immedica Pharma for $7 million
• Analysts upgrade OVID to 'Outperform' as OV329’s clinical potential gains traction
• Biotech sector gains momentum with AMGN (Amgen) leading the charge

Ovid Therapeutics (OVID) delivered a dramatic 11.88% intraday rally on August 15, 2025, driven by a $7 million royalty sale and renewed analyst optimism. The stock surged from $0.8106 to $1.02, a 24.6% rebound from its 52-week low of $0.2425. With biotech peers like Amgen (AMGN) rising 1.92%, the sector appears to be recalibrating after months of volatility.

Royalty Sale and Analyst Upgrades Fuel Ovid's Surge
Ovid Therapeutics’ 11.88% intraday jump was catalyzed by two key developments: a $7 million deal to sell future royalties of its Ganaxolone drug to Immedica Pharma and a flurry of analyst upgrades. The royalty sale provides immediate liquidity, extending OVID’s cash runway into 2026, while analysts at Oppenheimer and Wall Street Zen highlighted OV329’s Phase 1 safety data as a catalyst for long-term value. Additionally, short-sellers reduced their bets by 27%, signaling waning bearish sentiment. These factors combined to trigger a short-covering rally and speculative buying in a stock that had traded near $0.59 just weeks prior.

Biotech Sector Gains Momentum as AMGN Leads
The broader biotech sector saw mixed momentum, with Amgen (AMGN) rising 1.92% on strong Q2 earnings and a $3.13 price target. OVID’s 11.88% surge outperformed peers like X4 Pharmaceuticals (-11.94%) and Alector (-4.27%), reflecting its unique catalysts. While AMGN’s growth is driven by blockbuster drugs like Repatha, OVID’s rally hinges on near-term clinical progress and capital structure improvements. The sector’s 20% 3-year growth forecast suggests OVID’s move could align with a broader biotech rebound if OV329 trials meet expectations.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on OVID’s Volatility
• RSI: 70.36 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.0700 (bullish divergence)
• 200-day MA: $0.6143 (price above)
• Bollinger Bands: $0.364–$0.809 (current price near upper band)

OVID’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but its 18.53% average daily volatility and $0.81 fair opening price indicate continued momentum. Key levels to watch: $0.86 (resistance) and $0.70 (support). The stock’s 84.19% 3-month target implies a bullish bias, though high gamma options may amplify directional bets.

Top Options:
• OVID20250919C1 (Call, $1 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 1197.84% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.969 (high leverage)
- Theta: -0.0035 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0192 (sensitive to price swings)
- Turnover: 90 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 1.07%
- Payoff (5% up): $0.045 (max(0, 0.9871 - 1))
- Why: High delta and gamma make this ideal for a short-term rally above $1.02.

• OVID20251017C1 (Call, $1 strike, 2025-10-17):
- IV: 160.43% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.6119 (balanced)
- Theta: -0.00216 (lower decay)
- Gamma: 0.595 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 0 (low liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 3.99%
- Payoff (5% up): $0.045 (max(0, 0.9871 - 1))
- Why: Gamma and moderate IV suit a mid-term hold if OV329 trials progress.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider OVID20250919C1 into a break above $1.02. Conservative traders should wait for a pullback to $0.70 before initiating longs.

Backtest Ovid Therapeutics Stock Performance
The backtest of OVID's performance after an intraday surge of 12% shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a positive maximum return of 0.09% on the date of the surge, the overall short-term performance was lackluster, with the 3-day win rate at 48.77%, the 10-day win rate at 46.65%, and the 30-day win rate at 49.47%. The returns over these periods were negative, with a -0.54% return over 3 days, a -0.65% return over 10 days, and a -0.23% return over 30 days. This suggests that while OVID can experience short-term gains, they are often followed by declines, indicating a challenging environment for investors seeking to capitalize on such intraday surges.

OVID’s Rally: A Catalyst-Driven Bet or a Fleeting Flare?
Ovid Therapeutics’ 11.88% surge is a mix of short-term catalysts (royalty sale, analyst upgrades) and speculative momentum. While the stock’s 84.19% 3-month target and AMGN’s 1.92% rise suggest biotech optimism, its 18.53% daily volatility and overbought RSI (70.36) warn of potential pullbacks. Investors should monitor $0.86 resistance and $0.70 support. For now, OVID20250919C1 offers a high-gamma play on a continued rally, but caution is warranted if the stock fails to hold above $0.81. Watch AMGN’s lead and OVID’s 2026 cash runway for confirmation of a sustainable trend.