Ouster Plunges 9.7% Amid Volatile Intraday Action: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Ouster (OUST) trades at $27.75, down 9.7% from its previous close of $30.73
• Intraday range spans $27.455 to $30.275, with turnover hitting 2.44 million shares
• 52-week range of $5.905 to $36.25 highlights extreme volatility
• Sector leader Caterpillar (CAT) inches up 0.12%, suggesting no direct sector link
Today’s sharp selloff in Ouster defies immediate sector correlation, as the stock trades near its 52-week low. Despite recent product announcements and sustainability initiatives, the lidar sensor maker faces a technical breakdown, with key options contracts showing explosive implied volatility. Traders are now parsing whether this is a short-term correction or a deeper bearish shift.

Market Sentiment and Technical Weakness Drive Sharp Decline
Ouster’s 9.7% intraday drop reflects a confluence of technical exhaustion and broader market skepticism. While the company recently highlighted its BlueCity expansion and L3 chip advancements, the stock’s price action—trading below its 30-day moving average of $28.46—signals short-term bearish momentum. The MACD histogram (-0.228) and RSI (54.0) suggest weakening bullish conviction, while Bollinger Bands show the price is near the lower band at $25.75. This technical breakdown, combined with a negative 52-week trend, has triggered profit-taking and short-covering pressure.

Options Volatility and Short-Term Bearish Setup: Key Contracts to Watch
• Technical Indicators: 30D MA: $28.46 (below), RSI: 54.0 (neutral), MACD Histogram: -0.228 (bearish)
• Key Levels: Support at $28.25 (30D support), resistance at $29.94 (Bollinger Middle Band)
• Options Focus: High-IV puts and calls with leverage ratios >50% and moderate deltas

Top Put Option: OUST20250919P28
• Strike: $28, Expiry: 2025-09-19, IV: 83.18%, Leverage: 19.94%, Delta: -0.48, Theta: -0.011, Gamma: 0.116, Turnover: $34,173
• High liquidity and moderate delta make this ideal for a bearish play. A 5% downside to $26.36 would yield a put payoff of $1.64 per contract.

Top Call Option: OUST20250919C28
• Strike: $28, Expiry: 2025-09-19, IV: 81.08%, Leverage: 21.31%, Delta: 0.517, Theta: -0.149, Gamma: 0.119, Turnover: $9,883
• Strong gamma and liquidity suit aggressive bulls. A 5% upside to $29.14 would yield a call payoff of $1.14 per contract.

Trading View: Aggressive bears should target OUST20250919P28 for a short-term bearish play if the $28.25 support breaks. Bulls may consider OUST20250919C28 for a bounce above $29.94, but risk remains elevated given the negative technical setup.

Backtest Ouster Stock Performance
Below is a concise event-study back-test of OUST.O after “intraday –10 % plunge” days (daily low ≤ –10 % vs. previous close) from 1 Jan 2022 through 12 Sep 2025.Key take-aways (30-day holding horizon):• Events analysed: 60 • Median 10-day post-event return ≈ –5.9 % (vs. +1.9 % benchmark), statistically negative. • Drawdown pressure persists for ~2 weeks, with marginal recovery thereafter. • Win-rate remains below 45 % through day 30.Defaults & assumptions:1. “Intraday plunge” defined as (Low – Prev-Close) / Prev-Close ≤ –10 % (daily bars). 2. Price series use split-adjusted closes. 3. Event study measures simple close-to-close returns; benchmark = buy-and-hold of OUST over the same window.You can interact with the visual module above to explore day-level statistics, cumulative P/L curves, and distribution charts.

Position for Volatility: Key Levels and Options to Watch
Ouster’s sharp selloff reflects a critical juncture for the stock, with technical indicators and options data pointing to heightened bearish pressure. While the company’s product roadmap remains intact, the immediate focus is on whether the $28.25 support holds. Sector leader Caterpillar’s 0.12% gain suggests no direct industry link, but Ouster’s standalone volatility demands caution. Traders should monitor the $28.25 level and consider OUST20250919P28 for downside protection. If the breakdown continues, this put contract offers a high-leverage, high-liquidity hedge against further declines.