Ouster Outlook: A Weak Technical Profile and Uncertain Analyst Signals

1. Market Snapshot
   Headline Takeaway: Ouster (OUST.O) faces headwinds with a weak technical profile and diverging analyst signals; investors should proceed with caution. Stance: Negative

2. News Highlights
   Trump doubles tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50% starting in May 2025. This move could indirectly affect manufacturing sectors and supply chains, potentially impacting companies like Ouster that rely on industrial demand. China's manufacturing activity contracted in May 2025 for the second consecutive month, signaling global economic challenges. A slowdown in China could affect downstream demand for Ouster’s lidar technology in sectors like autonomous vehicles and robotics. Trump fast-tracks uranium mine in Utah, signaling a potential shift in energy policies. While not directly related to Ouster, such policy moves highlight broader economic and political uncertainties that could influence investor sentiment.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals
   Analysts have shown mixed signals for Ouster in the past 20 days. While some have upgraded the stock to “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” the historical performance of these ratings has been poor.

   
   Average Rating Score (Simple Mean): 4.50 Weighted Rating Score (Performance-Weighted): 0.41 Rating Consistency: Dispersed — the recent ratings include “Strong Buy” and “Underperform,” indicating a lack of consensus. Alignment with Price Trend: The current price has risen by 0.27%, but the weighted expectations from analysts are not aligned with the price movement, suggesting a potential mispricing or delayed reaction.

Fundamental Factors
One key fundamental factor stands out: Cost of Sales Ratio (%): 66.33% (internal diagnostic score: 0.80). A high cost of sales ratio suggests pressure on gross margins and pricing power, which is a negative signal for long-term sustainability. This factor falls in the weakest performing group of stocks.

1. Money-Flow Trends
   Big money is generally withdrawing from Ouster, with all major fund flow categories showing negative trends. Overall Inflow Ratio: 48.21% — meaning that slightly less than half of the capital is flowing into the stock compared to outflows. Large and Extra-Large Inflow Ratios: 49.68% and 47.54% respectively — both show declining interest from institutional investors. Internal Diagnostic Score for Fund Flow: 7.78 (internal diagnostic score: 0-10) — this is a positive signal for fund flow, but it conflicts with the bearish technical and analyst signals.

2. Key Technical Signals
   Ouster’s technical indicators are clearly bearish, with no bullish signals detected over the past five days. Dark Cloud Cover Pattern: Score: 3.03 (internal diagnostic score: 0-10) — a moderate bearish signal seen once in the last five days. WR Overbought Signal: Score: 2.15 (internal diagnostic score: 0-10) — a weak overbought signal seen five times in the last five days, suggesting potential for a correction. Overall Technical Score: 2.59 (internal diagnostic score: 0-10) — a very weak technical setup. Key Insight: The momentum is deteriorating, with 2 bearish indicators vs. 0 bullish, and the trend is strongly bearish. The risk of a further decline is significant.

3. Conclusion
   Actionable Takeaway: Given the weak technical indicators, diverging analyst ratings, and high cost of sales ratio, investors should avoid Ouster for now or consider waiting for a potential pullback after a consolidation phase. Keep an eye on the broader economic and policy developments, especially in manufacturing and trade, which could impact demand for lidar technology in the long term.