Oshkosh Corporation’s Investor Day: A Catalyst for Growth in Defense, Tech, and Value

Oshkosh Corporation’s upcoming Investor Day on June 5, 2025, is poised to be a pivotal moment for the industrial giant, as it unveils strategies to capitalize on defense modernization, AI-driven innovation, and disciplined capital allocation. With shares trading at a discount to peers like Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE), Oshkosh (OSK) presents a compelling buy opportunity ahead of an event that could finally unlock its underappreciated value.

Defense Dominance: A Stealth Growth Engine

Oshkosh’s Defense segment is the unsung hero of its portfolio. The company is on track to achieve full-rate production of its Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV) by year-end, a $3.5 billion U.S. Army contract that will power revenue growth in 2026 and beyond. Investors have yet to fully price in this catalyst: the NGDV’s scalability could add $500 million+ in annual revenue once ramped up, eclipsing the segment’s current $1.1 billion annual run rate.

The Defense segment also benefits from $150 million in international orders, including a Dutch Marine Corps contract for 150 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTVs). With geopolitical tensions driving global military spending, Oshkosh’s leadership in armored and autonomous defense vehicles positions it to capitalize on a $100 billion global market for modernized military logistics systems.

Innovation: From Fire Trucks to AI Telematics

Oshkosh’s pivot to high-margin, tech-driven products is another growth lever. The company’s Clear Sky Smart Fleet telematics platform and IOPS fleet management software (for airports) are reducing operational costs for customers while generating recurring software revenue. Meanwhile, its Pierce Volterra electric fire truck—the first of its kind—caters to a $2 billion market for sustainable emergency vehicles.

The Vocational segment, which reported a 15% adjusted operating margin in Q1, is also advancing collision avoidance systems (CAMS) and autonomous baggage handlers for airports. These innovations are helping Oshkosh command 5–10% price premiums over competitors, a testament to its premium positioning.

Resilience in Access: Tariffs and Backlogs

Even as the Access Equipment segment faces headwinds from slowing private construction, Oshkosh has maintained a $1.8 billion backlog and a 11.3% operating margin through strategic localization. By shifting production of its Hinowa booms from China to Italy, the company sidestepped EU tariffs in under a year—a move that could save $0.50 per share by 2026. With $930 million in Q1 orders, Access remains a cash generator, supported by infrastructure projects like the U.S. Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

Capital Allocation: Buying Back Value

Oshkosh’s financial discipline stands out in an industry plagued by overleveraged peers. The company has:
- Secured a $500M 24-month term loan to bolster liquidity, lowering borrowing costs by 1.5% versus its revolver.
- Repurchased $29 million in shares in Q1, boosting EPS by $0.03 annually.
- Maintained a 13-year dividend growth streak, with a payout ratio of just 30% of earnings.

With a $11 EPS target for 2025 (excluding tariffs) and a stock trading at 12x forward earnings versus peers’ 15x+, Oshkosh is primed for a valuation re-rating.

Why Act Now?

The June 5 Investor Day will crystallize Oshkosh’s three-pronged moat:
1. Defense Dominance: NGDV’s ramp-up and international contracts.
2. Tech Leadership: Software, electrification, and autonomous systems.
3. Margin Resilience: Backlog stability and tariff mitigation.

Analysts project a 20% EPS upside by 2026, yet the stock trades at a 20% discount to its industrial peers. With $1.2 billion in net cash and a track record of outperforming during market downturns, Oshkosh is a buy ahead of an event that could finally align its valuation with its strategic ambitions.

Final Call: Oshkosh is a stealth industrial powerhouse set to benefit from defense spending, tech innovation, and shareholder-friendly capital returns. The June 5 Investor Day is the catalyst to bridge the gap between its potential and its price. Act now.