Orla Mining's Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge on Camino Rojo, Musselwhite Costs, and Permitting Timelines

Date of Call: November 12, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $270M for Q3 2025 (79,000 oz sold at a realized $3,417/oz including prepay; ex-prepay average realized price $3,508/oz)
• EPS: $0.15 per share net income ( $49.3M); adjusted earnings $0.22 per share ($73M)

Guidance:

• 2025 guidance reaffirmed but updated to reflect deferral of higher‑grade mining due to re‑sequencing; Q4 costs expected to ease but some remediation-related pressure will persist.
• South Railroad: BLM record of decision targeted Q2 2026; on‑site construction to begin after ROD with first gold targeted early 2028 (could slip into late 2027 if permitting accelerates).
• Feasibility update forthcoming to a 2025 constructable plan with updated costs, owner‑operated crushing/mining and improved recoveries.
• Musselwhite: multi‑year aggressive exploration to extend mine life and increase throughput.
• Camino Rojo: permit engagement ongoing; underground drift and CIL plant permitting contingent on additional geotechnical/hydrogeologic data and board approvals.

Business Commentary:

* Record Production and Financial Performance: - Orla Mining reported record gold production and a record free cash flow in Q3 2025. - The growth was driven by strong performance at the Musselwhite and Camino Rojo mines, supported by strategic investments in exploration and operational growth.

• Musselwhite Mine Developments:
• Musselwhite mined 326,000 tons of ore with a mill head grade of 5.87 g/t gold, resulting in nearly 58,000 ounces of gold produced.

• Investments in new equipment, preventative maintenance, and ventilation upgrades contributed to improved working conditions and productivity.

• Camino Rojo Challenges and Solutions:

• A pit wall event at Camino Rojo led to temporary mining suspension, but production continuity was maintained through stacking and processing of existing stockpiles.

• The company plans to mine from surface downwards to stabilize the pit wall and re-establish safe working conditions.

• South Railroad Project Progress:

• The South Railroad project moved towards final permits and construction start, with project updates expected to be delivered in the weeks ahead.
• Advancements in the permitting process and community engagement have contributed to continued momentum for this Nevada-based project.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "another strong quarter with record margins delivering cash to the balance sheet"; management highlighted "record free cash flow supported by record gold production and price" and multiple project milestones (South Railroad FAST‑41 coverage, Musselwhite drill success) indicating operational strength and growth visibility.

Q&A:

• Question from Cosmos Chu (CIBC): Several questions — (1) On Musselwhite: you started a new scope in Red Wings in September; is that in the higher portions of the orebody and will it help fill the mill given materials‑handling constraints? How different are grades between upper and deeper zones? (2) On South Railroad: you became a FAST‑41 covered project in early November — what is the practical significance given the timeline still points to early 2028 production? (3) On Camino Rojo: with recent permits granted to peers in Mexico, any read‑through to your pit pushback permit and what questions have Mexican authorities been asking?
  Response: Musselwhite: upper zones run ~5 g/t with deeper zones 6–7+ g/t, enabling near‑term throughput gains by combining upper tons and deeper high‑grade material; South Railroad: FAST‑41 increases oversight/access to federal agencies and permitting certainty (BLM ROD targeted Q2 2026) — official first gold early 2028 but could be pulled into late 2027 if permitting accelerates; Camino Rojo: management is confident a permit will be granted soon — authorities asked about environmental mitigation and the exploratory nature/data needs for an underground drift.

• Question from Lauren McConnell (Paradigm Capital): On guidance and costs: you reaffirmed 2025 guidance and noted costs should ease in Q4 — how quickly will Camino Rojo all‑in sustaining costs normalize and is Q4 still a transitional quarter? Also, given strong free cash flow and current gold prices, how are you thinking about capital allocation between debt reduction, growth (notably South Railroad), and shareholder returns — has that view changed recently?
  Response: Q4 will see easing costs but some remediation/stripting pressure will persist; the Newmont transition/TSA exit by end of November should provide cost relief. Capital allocation: they plan to self‑fund South Railroad, maintain similar exploration spend, likely accelerate debt repayments (have already repaid $60M out‑of‑plan) and are actively discussing returning capital to shareholders via a dividend subject to board approval.

• Question from Andrew McKittrick (BMO Capital Markets): What should we expect in the upcoming South Railroad project update/feasibility — will there be a resource update or material changes to production plans given the new drilling and multi‑year delay since the prior study?
  Response: The feasibility update will be a 2025‑ready, constructable plan that honors the 2020 Plan of Operations (no material change to planned oxide ounce profiles) but updates costs and execution; it includes owner‑operated crushing and mining to increase recoveries and de‑risk heap leach performance, with detailed engineering, vendor pricing and execution plans.

Contradiction Point 1

Camino Rojo Production and Permitting

It involves differing expectations regarding the timeline for restarting production and the impact of permitting delays, which directly affects revenue projections and investor expectations.

How are you prioritizing capital allocation between debt reduction, growth, and shareholder returns given the current gold price environment? - Lauren McConnell (Paradigm Capital)

2025Q3: With the strong gold price, the company plans to continue exploration across properties, develop South Railroad, and accelerate debt repayments. Consideration is being given to potential shareholder returns through dividends, with an active board discussion ongoing. - Jason Simpson(CEO)

Can you provide details on the larger stockpile drawdown at Camino Rojo in Q2, and will it continue until the permit is received? What modifications are needed to the mine plan, and what is the restart timeline based on the action plan? - Wayne Lam (TD Securities)

2025Q2: We plan to continue stacking the low-grade stockpile this year as a source for gold production. All material from the north wall will be crushed and stacked. The current action plan includes mining from surface downwards to push back 50 meters at the toe and 80 meters at the crest, creating a shallower pit wall angle and re-establishing safe working conditions. - Jason Douglas Simpson(CEO & Director)

Contradiction Point 2

Musselwhite Operating Costs and Grade Profile

It involves differing expectations regarding the timeline and progress of cost reductions and grade fluctuations at the Musselwhite mine, which directly impacts operational efficiency and production costs.

What is the project update for South Railroad, including the feasibility study? - Lauren McConnell (Paradigm Capital)

2025Q3: We expect to improve the cost profile at Musselwhite over time, aiming for costs between $1,300 and $1,500 per ounce consistently. Quarterly fluctuations in grade are expected, but we are confident in maintaining the life of mine grade. - Jason Douglas Simpson(President, CEO & Director)

What are the expected operating costs and grade profile for Musselwhite? Will there be sequential cost improvements, and is the tonnage increase affecting grades? - Wayne Lam (TD Securities)

2025Q2: We expect to improve the cost profile at Musselwhite over time, aiming for costs between $1,300 and $1,500 per ounce consistently. Quarterly fluctuations in grade are expected, but we are confident in maintaining the life of mine grade. - Jason Douglas Simpson(President, CEO & Director)

Contradiction Point 3

South Railroad Project Timing and Permitting

It involves the timeline and permitting progress of the South Railroad project, which is crucial for the development of the company's mine operations and can impact investor expectations.

What is the significance of the South Railroad project becoming a FAST-41 project, and has the production start date been affected? - Cosmos Chu (CIBC)

2025Q3: Becoming a FAST-41 covered project provides access to different departments and oversight by the Department of the Interior to ensure project advancement without impediments. It does not impact the production start date of early 2028 but may offer accelerated permitting. - Jason Simpson(CEO)

What are the key permitting risks associated with South Railroad? - Cosme Montagut (BMO Nesbitt Burns)

2024Q4: We do not anticipate any delays to our South Railroad Project based on the permitting status at this time. - Jason Simpson(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Camino Rojo All-In Sustaining Costs

It involves the expected timeline for normalizing all-in sustaining costs at Camino Rojo, which is a critical financial metric for investors.

How quickly will all-in sustaining costs at Camino Rojo normalize, and will Q4 remain a transitional period? - Lauren McConnell (Paradigm Capital)

2025Q3: Remediation work at Camino Rojo impacted Q3 costs, and some cost pressure may continue into Q4 due to higher strip levels. By year-end, Newmont systems will be exited, and cost relief is expected. - Jason Simpson(CEO)

How should we view cost pressures at Camino Rojo, and what are the expectations for AISC this year? Can it normalize by next year or the second half of next year? - Lauren McConnell (Paradigm Capital)

2024Q4: As we move into 2025, we expect that we will be operating in a more normalized cost environment. - Jason Simpson(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Mexican Permitting and Timeline

It involves updates and expectations regarding the permitting process in Mexico, which impacts the timeline for the Camino Rojo project and production start dates.

Can you update us on recent permitting developments in Mexico and address any questions from Mexican authorities about Camino Rojo? - Cosmos Chu(CIBC)

2025Q3: Mexican authorities are demonstrating permit delivery progress, including granting permits to peers. Orla's permit is a priority, and production certainty extends into 2027. - Jason Simpson(CEO)

Have there been recent updates on permitting progress in Mexico? Are you concerned about potential delays in obtaining your permit this year? - Allison Carson(Desjardins)

2025Q1: We don't have concerns, as we are hearing things based on active conversations at different levels in Mexico. We submitted our application on November 11 of last year, and our expectations are that we should hear a resolution on our application for expansion in the next few months. All conversations indicate that we are on schedule to deliver the permits. - Jason Simpson(CEO)