Origin Materials 2025 Q3 Earnings 55.4% Net Loss Reduction Despite 43% Revenue Drop

Origin Materials (ORGN) reported Q3 2025 earnings on November 14, 2025, with a revenue decline of 43.2% year-over-year to $4.66 million. Despite the revenue shortfall, the company narrowed its net loss by 55.4% to $16.38 million compared to $36.76 million in 2024 Q3, and guided to $20M–$30M revenue for 2026. The stock price, however, fell 23.52% month-to-date, reflecting investor caution.

Revenue

Origin Materials reported total revenue of $4.66 million for Q3 2025, with the Products segment accounting for the entirety of the revenue. This represents a 43.2% decline from $8.20 million in the same period last year, driven by slower supply chain program rollouts rather than waning demand. The company emphasized ongoing capacity expansion and strong customer interest in its sustainable PET caps, particularly in the water market.

Earnings/Net Income

The company reduced its net loss to $-16.38 million in Q3 2025, a 55.4% improvement from $-36.76 million in 2024 Q3. Earnings per share (EPS) also improved to -$0.11 from -$0.26, reflecting operational efficiency gains. The EPS improvement indicates progress in narrowing losses, though the company remains unprofitable.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

The strategy of buying ORGN shares on revenue raise announcements has shown poor performance over the past three years, with a cumulative return of -44.16%, significantly underperforming the market. This poor performance stems from the 30-day holding period’s exposure to high volatility, as the stock price fluctuated sharply post-announcement. Comparing this to a simple three-year holding period, which yielded a -33.33% return, highlights that the timing of purchases around revenue raises exacerbates losses. Investors are cautioned against relying on such strategies without considering broader market conditions and the company’s long-term growth trajectory.

CEO Commentary

CEO John Bissell highlighted secured financing of $15M (initial close) and $90M total capacity to scale PET cap production, emphasizing the company’s leadership in recyclability and lightweighting. Strategic priorities include on-time CapFormer Line 6 factory acceptance testing by year-end 2025 and global sales expansion via partnerships like Berlin Packaging. Commercial progress includes water market traction, with over 50% of qualified water brands as potential customers.

Guidance

Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $20M–$30M and 2027 revenue of $100M–$200M, with adjusted EBITDA breakeven expected in 2027.

Additional News

1. Financing Expansion: Origin secured $15M in initial convertible debt and $90M in total capacity, with an additional $20M in equipment-backed financing added in Q3, strengthening its balance sheet.

2. Berlin Packaging Partnership: The company fulfilled its first order from Berlin Packaging, a major distribution partner, signaling progress in global market expansion.

3. Litigation Settlement: Origin resolved securities lawsuits without liability, with full insurance coverage, removing a prior operational distraction.