Oracle Stock Plummets 3.8% Amid $15B Bond Sale and AI Infrastructure Expansion

Summary
• Oracle (ORCL) trades at $296.62, down 3.84% from its $308.46 previous close
• Intraday range spans $288.87 to $298.75 amid $15B bond sale plans
• OpenAI collaboration for $400B Stargate AI data centers fuels capital needs
Oracle’s stock faces a sharp intraday decline as the company announces a $15 billion bond offering to fund its AI cloud ambitions. The move follows a $455 billion cloud backlog surge and a $400 billion Stargate AI infrastructure partnership with OpenAI. With a 3.84% drop, the stock tests key support levels as investors weigh funding risks against long-term growth potential.

Capital Access Concerns Overshadow AI Growth Hype
Oracle’s 3.84% intraday drop stems from a Bloomberg report revealing plans to raise $15 billion via corporate bonds to fund its AI cloud expansion. While the company’s $455 billion cloud backlog and $400 billion Stargate AI partnership with OpenAI highlight robust demand, the bond sale signals aggressive capital requirements. Analysts note Oracle’s CAPEX is projected to jump to $34.2 billion in FY26, up from $21.2 billion in FY25, raising concerns about debt sustainability. The move contrasts with its 84% YTD rally, as investors balance near-term funding risks against long-term AI infrastructure dominance.

Data Processing Sector Volatility as Amazon Holds Steady
Oracle’s 3.84% decline contrasts with Amazon’s (AMZN) -0.16% intraday move, highlighting divergent investor sentiment within the Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector. While Oracle’s bond-driven volatility reflects AI infrastructure capital intensity, Amazon’s muted performance suggests market focus on Oracle’s unique AI cloud funding challenges. Sector trends point to hybrid outsourcing models and AI-powered data extraction gaining traction, but Oracle’s aggressive capital allocation strategy remains a standout risk factor.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Key Levels
• 200-day MA: $190.36 (far below) | RSI: 69.67 (neutral) | MACD: 19.90 (bullish) | Bollinger Bands: $193.42–$354.69
• Short-term support at $233.53 (30D) and $168.03 (200D) resistance at $354.69
• Sector leader Amazon (-0.16%) suggests broader market stability

Top Options Contracts:
• ORCL20251003P290 (Put):
- Strike: $290 | Expiry: 2025-10-03 | IV: 48.10% | Delta: -0.348 | Theta: -0.023 | Gamma: 0.0164 | Turnover: 2.27M
- IV: High volatility | Delta: Strong bearish bias | Theta: Low time decay | Gamma: Responsive to price swings
- This put option offers leverage (54.30%) and liquidity, ideal for a 5% downside scenario (targeting $281.79 payoff).
• ORCL20251003C290 (Call):
- Strike: $290 | Expiry: 2025-10-03 | IV: 44.98% | Delta: 0.6598 | Theta: -1.15 | Gamma: 0.0174 | Turnover: 3.88M
- IV: Moderate volatility | Delta: Balanced bullish exposure | Theta: High time decay | Gamma: Strong price sensitivity
- This call provides 23.32% leverage and high liquidity, suitable for a rebound above $290. A 5% upside scenario projects $305.91 payoff.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider ORCL20251003C290 into a bounce above $290, while bears should eye ORCL20251003P290 for a breakdown below $285. Both contracts offer high liquidity and volatility alignment with Oracle’s near-term technical profile.

Backtest Oracle Stock Performance
Below is an interactive module with the full back-test details and visualization. Key assumptions that were auto-filled:1. Price series: daily CLOSE prices (no intraday data available through current interface). 2. Entry timing: buy at that day’s close whenever ORCL drops ≥ 4 % from the previous close. 3. Exit timing: positions are kept until the end-of-test period (no explicit sell rules were given). – This exaggerates the reported return because only one open trade (2024-08-??) remained open through 2025-09-25. – You can add sell rules later (e.g., hold 5/10/20 days, or use stop-loss / take-profit) for a more realistic view.Feel free to explore the chart, equity curve, and statistics, then let me know if you’d like to refine the rules (e.g., fixed holding window, risk control, or different entry thresholds).Open the module to drill into performance metrics, trade list, and equity curve.

Oracle at Crossroads: Fundamentals vs. Volatility
Oracle’s 3.84% drop underscores the tension between its AI cloud growth narrative and capital access risks. With $455 billion in RPO and a $400 billion Stargate partnership, the company’s long-term trajectory remains intact. However, the $15 billion bond plan and elevated CAPEX raise short-term concerns. Key levels to watch: $285 (200D support) and $300 (psychological hurdle). Sector leader Amazon’s -0.16% move suggests broader market stability, but Oracle’s unique capital intensity demands closer scrutiny. Act now: Position for a $285 breakdown with ORCL20251003P290 or target a $300 rebound with ORCL20251003C290.