Oracle (ORCL) Options Signal $200 Put Defense and $225 Call Resistance – Here’s How to Trade the Volatility

• Oracle’s stock surges 4.26% to $205.42, but technicals and options data hint at a fragile rebound.
• Put/call ratio near parity (0.95), but heavy put open interest at $200 and $175 suggests bearish caution.
• Key call resistance at $225 and $250 shows lingering bullish bets, despite a 30% monthly decline.

Here’s the takeaway: Oracle’s options market is locked in a tug-of-war between short-term bearishness and long-term AI optimism. The stock’s 4.26% intraday rally has hit a crossroads—support at $202.24 (intraday low) is shaky, while the 200D MA at $210.80 looms as a critical psychological hurdle. Traders need to decide: is this a rebound setup or a bear trap? Let’s break it down.

The Options Battle: Puts at $200, Calls at $225 Signal Sentiment Split

The options chain tells a story of divided priorities. For this Friday’s expiration (Nov 28), puts at $200 (OI: 9,216) and $175 (OI: 4,658) dominate, while calls peak at $225 (OI: 5,288) and $250 (OI: 5,010). This suggests a bearish bias for near-term traders but a stubborn hope for a rebound above $225. The put/call ratio for open interest (0.95) is almost balanced, but the sheer volume of puts at $200 indicates a key price level where sellers are bracing for a breakdown.

For next Friday’s expiration (Dec 5), the puts at $175 (OI: 5,507) and $200 (OI: 3,678) remain strong, while calls at $250 (OI: 7,677) and $210 (OI: 5,595) show renewed bullish interest. This hints at a potential short-term trade: if ORCL holds above $200, the $210–$225 range could attract buyers betting on a bounce. But if it cracks below $200, the $175–$180 level becomes a critical test of conviction.

News Flow: Debt Fears vs. AI Hype Create a Tension Play

Oracle’s recent news is a mixed bag. On one hand, its $300 billion OpenAI deal and $100+ billion debt load have sent credit-default swaps to two-year highs. On the other, cloud revenue grew 27% YoY to $6.7 billion in Q4 2025, and some analysts argue the stock is oversold. The market is pricing in both extremes: the puts at $200 reflect fears of a debt-driven selloff, while the calls at $250 hint at a belief that AI execution will justify the risk. The key question is whether Oracle’s $35 billion FY26 capital expenditure plan will be seen as bold innovation or reckless leverage.

Actionable Trades: Puts for Defense, Calls for a Rebound

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• Bearish Play: Buy ORCL Nov 28 $200P puts. If the stock breaks below $202.24 (intraday low), this strike offers downside exposure with a clear risk boundary. Exit if ORCL rebounds above $210.
• Bullish Play: Buy a call spread with ORCL Nov 28 $225C and $250C. If the stock holds above $200, the $225 call could benefit from a rebound, while the $250 call caps risk if the rally stalls.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry Near $197 (previous close) if support at $190–$195 holds. Target $210 (intraday high) if the 200D MA at $210.80 acts as a magnet. Stop below $190.
• Short-Term Scalp: Buy on dips to $202–$205 if the RSI (17.26) shows a rebound from oversold territory. Exit at $210 or re-entering the Bollinger Band lower limit ($188.07) if the trend weakens.

Volatility on the Horizon: Watch the $200–$225 Range

Oracle’s next move hinges on whether the $200 support holds. A break below that could trigger a test of the $175–$180 puts, amplifying bearish sentiment. Conversely, a close above $225 would signal short-term buyers are willing to pay up for AI optimism. Either way, the options market is pricing in a volatile December. Traders should stay nimble—this isn’t a long-term bet, but a high-stakes game of inches in a stock that’s already lost 30% of its value in a month.