Oracle (ORCL) Options Signal $200 Bullish Bias as $150 Puts Warn of Downside Risk – Here’s How to Play It

• Oracle’s price jumped 2.6% to $197 today, trading above its 30D and 200D moving averages.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $200 and $220, while $150 puts dominate next Friday’s expirations.
• Analysts remain split: 20 ‘Buy’ ratings vs. 1 ‘Sell,’ with a median price target of $307.72.

Here’s the core insight: Oracle’s options market is bullish near $200 but warns of a potential $150 support break. With the stock trading in a long-term range but showing short-term bearish momentum, traders need to balance optimism about cloud growth with caution over funding risks. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Calls at $200 vs. Bearish Puts at $150: A Tale of Two Expirations

The options chain tells a story of divided sentiment. For this Friday’s expirations, ORCL20251226C200 calls lead with 18,663 open contracts, suggesting traders expect a rebound above $200. The $220 and $225 calls add to this bullish bias, though volume is lower. Meanwhile, next Friday’s expirations show a stark shift: ORCL20260102P150 puts dominate with 16,321 open contracts, signaling a fear of a sharp drop below $150. This duality reflects Oracle’s precarious balance between AI-driven growth and debt concerns.

The lack of block trades means we’re seeing retail and institutional options activity without hidden whale moves. But the $150 put-heavy setup is a red flag: if Oracle’s funding struggles escalate, the stock could gap down toward that level.

News Flow: Cloud Growth vs. Capital Expenditure Woes

Oracle’s recent news is a mixed bag. The Michigan data center update and TikTok joint venture progress are positives, with institutional investors piling in. But the Blue Owl funding withdrawal and RBC’s $250 price target cut highlight risks. Analysts love the $523 billion in remaining performance obligations but worry about Oracle’s $10 billion data center spending plan.

This creates a tug-of-war: bulls see long-term cloud momentum, bears fear short-term balance-sheet strain. The stock’s 1.9% dividend yield and 34% cloud revenue growth are tailwinds, but the 40% drop over three months is a headwind. The key is whether Oracle can fund its AI bets without burning through cash.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Hedging

For options traders, the most compelling setup is ORCL20260102C200 calls. If Oracle breaks above today’s intraday high of $197.61, these $200 calls could surge as the stock tests its 30D moving average ($200.91). A $210 target by next Friday would yield ~5% gains. For downside protection, consider ORCL20260102P190 puts as a hedge if the stock dips toward its 200D support ($147.48–$151.59).

Stock traders should watch two levels:

• Entry near $195 if Oracle holds above its intraday low of $192.83. Target $205 (30D MA + 5%) if the $200 call strike sees buying pressure.
• Stop-loss below $190 to avoid a breakdown into the $150–$180 put-heavy zone.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Bearish Risks

Oracle’s path forward hinges on execution. The Michigan project’s success could validate its AI expansion, but funding delays might force a sell-off. With the put/call ratio barely favoring calls (0.92) and RSI at 44.88, the stock isn’t overbought or oversold—leaving room for both sides.

Traders should treat this as a high-reward, high-risk setup. If Oracle’s cloud growth outpaces its debt worries, the $200–$220 call strikes could pay off. But if the $150 puts materialize, the stock might retest its 200D support. Either way, the options market has already priced in extremes—now it’s up to the fundamentals to decide which way the scales tip.