Oracle (ORCL) Options Signal $180 Put Defense – Here’s How to Play the AI Infrastructure Rebound

• Oracle (ORCL) trades at $194.96, down 1.53% with volume surging to 7.1 million shares.
• Put open interest dominates at $150 and $180 strikes, while calls peak at $200–$210.
• Analysts warn of $60B 2026 capex risks, but OpenAI’s $100B fundraising could reverse sentiment.
• The stock sits below its 30D, 100D, and 200D moving averages, signaling near-term bearish pressure.

The Options Market Is Betting on a $180 Floor – Here’s Why It Matters

Options data tells a story of cautious bearishness. The put/call ratio for open interest is 0.93, meaning puts slightly outweigh calls. But the real drama is at specific strikes: 16,405 puts at $150 and 13,878 puts at $180 (expiring Jan 2) suggest institutional players are hedging against a sharp drop. Meanwhile, calls at $200 ($7,252 OI) and $210 ($5,641 OI) show some conviction in a rebound. No block trades mean no whale-sized bets to distort the market, but the $180 put wall could act as a psychological magnet if the stock approaches that level.

News Flow: Capex Woes vs. AI Hype – Which Story Wins?

Analysts are split. RBC and Phillip Securities have cut price targets due to Oracle’s $60B 2026 capex plan and negative free cash flow. But Jim Cramer and Jefferies’ Brent Thill highlight OpenAI’s potential $100B fundraising as a game-changer. Think about it: Oracle’s cloud infrastructure is tied to OpenAI’s success. If that check clears, the $180–$190 range (current support) could flip to a buying zone. Retail traders are already pricing in the worst-case scenario—Oracle’s debt load and AI spending are baked into the $194 level. A positive OpenAI update could trigger a short-covering rally.

Trade Ideas: Puts for Defense, Calls for a Rebound

For a conservative play, buy ORCL20260102P180 puts (expiring Jan 2). With 13,878 contracts in open interest, this strike offers downside protection if the stock breaks below $192.65 (intraday low). Entry: $180–$185; target: $170 if capex fears escalate.

If you’re bullish on the AI rebound, target ORCL20260102C210 calls. The $210 strike has 5,641 OI and acts as a psychological hurdle. Entry: $198–$200 (test resistance). Stop below $192.50. For a longer-term play, ORCL20260109C210 (next Friday) offers cheaper premium but requires patience.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $192 (intraday low) with a tight stop at $187.50. If the stock holds, target $198 (30D support) and $205 (middle Bollinger Band). A break above $198.50 (intraday high) would invalidate the bear case.

Volatility on the Horizon: Navigating Oracle’s AI-Driven Crossroads

Oracle’s story is a tug-of-war between its AI infrastructure bets and debt-heavy balance sheet. The options market is pricing in a $180–$190 floor, but a positive OpenAI development could flip the script. Keep an eye on the $210 call wall as a gauge of institutional optimism. For now, the stock is in a tight range—short-term traders can scalp between $192 and $198, while longer-term investors should wait for a clearer catalyst. The key takeaway? Don’t fight the $180 put defense, but don’t ignore the $210 call optimism either. This is a stock where sentiment can shift overnight.