Oracle (ORCL) Options Signal $177.5 Support Battle: Bear Call Spreads and Short-Dated Puts Gain Edge as Debt Concerns Mount

• Oracle shares trade at $179.38, down 4.9% on heavy volume (30.7M) amid stalled $10B data center funding talks.

• Put/call open interest ratio at 0.85 (calls dominate), but OTM puts at $177.5 ($OI: 13,327) hint at key support.

• MACD (-12.1) and RSI (44.5) suggest short-term bearish momentum, but Bollinger Bands show long-term range-bound potential.

The stock is caught in a tug-of-war between bearish technicals and Oracle’s defiant project timeline. Here’s how to position for the next move.The $177.5 Support Line: Why Options Are Pricing in a Critical Threshold

Options market sentiment is split but telling. OTM puts at $177.5 ($OI: 13,327) and $175 ($OI: 8,063) show heavy bearish positioning, while calls at $280 ($OI: 27,376) and $250 ($OI: 20,714) reflect lingering long-term bullish bets. The put/call ratio of 0.85 (calls > puts) suggests near-term bearishness, but the lack of block trades means no major institutional moves are skewing the data.

Here’s the catch: Oracle’s $177.5 put OI aligns almost perfectly with its intraday low of $177.17. If the stock holds above this level, the bearish case weakens. But if it breaks, the $150–$160 put OI ($OI: 6,068–6,385) could accelerate the slide. For calls, the $200 strike ($OI: 19,330) is a weak proxy for a rebound—though with the stock 9% below that level, it’s a high-risk bet.

News-Driven Context: Debt Fears vs. AI Ambitions

The Blue Owl Capital fallout isn’t just a funding hiccup—it’s a credibility test for Oracle’s AI strategy. The $248B in lease commitments over 15+ years is a red flag for investors, especially as peers like AWS and Azure generate stronger cash flows. Yet Oracle insists the Michigan project is "on schedule," which could stabilize the stock if the market buys the narrative. The real question is whether the $10B hole in its data center funding will force a credit downgrade or force a pivot to higher-margin AI services.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Short-Dated Puts and Strategic Spreads

1. Bear Call Spread (Short-Dated): Sell ORCL20251219C200 (strike $200) and buy ORCL20251219C220 (strike $220). The $200 call is OTM but within Bollinger Band range, while the $220 call has $OI: 8,364 next week. This caps risk if the stock rallies but profits if it stays below $200.
2. Short-Dated Put Play: Buy ORCL20251226P1725 (strike $172.5, $OI: 7,192). With the stock near $177.5, this put offers leverage if the $177.5 support breaks. Target a 10–15% move to $160–$165.
3. Stock Entry Strategy: Consider buying ORCL near $177.5 if it holds above the 200D MA ($147.48–$151.59). Set a tight stop below $175 and target $190–$200 if the AI narrative rebounds.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch Next

The next 72 hours will test Oracle’s resolve. If the stock closes above $185 (intraday high), the bearish case weakens. Below $175, the $150–$160 put OI could trigger a cascade. For options traders, the Friday expiration (Dec 19) offers a quick verdict on sentiment, while the following week’s expirations (Dec 26) provide a longer fuse for the AI story to play out.

This isn’t just about Oracle’s data centers—it’s about whether the market believes in its ability to fund the future without burning through cash. For now, the options data says: bet on the bear, but keep an eye on the bulls.