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Oppenheimer: This momentum indicator suggests that the US stock rally will continue next year.

Market IntelSunday, Nov 17, 2024 8:10 pm ET
1min read

According to Oppenheimer, the monthly relative strength index (RSI) shows that the overall US equity market won't peak until 2025.

Ari Wald, a technical analyst, wrote in a report: "Momentum indicators also suggest that the risk of the market's peak in the next few months is below average."

"The median duration of the 14-month RSI of the S&P 500 between 70 and the cycle peak since 1936 is 12 months, with a median return of +19%," Wald said. "This signal was issued in late August."

"Moreover, in 18 cases, 15 (83%) were at least 6 months away from the cycle peak, and 12 (67%) rose at least 10% after the peak."

Wald recommends the best technical buy/sell combinations for each sector in the short term:

Energy: Buy Cheniere Energy (LNG.US), sell Shell (SHEL.US)

Materials: Buy CRH Cement (CRH.US), sell Dow (DOW.US)

Industries: Buy Dover (DOV.US), sell Expeditors of Washington (EXPD.US)

Non-essentials: Buy Amazon (AMZN.US), sell MGM Resorts (MGM.US)

Essentials: Buy Kroger (KR.US), sell Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM.US)

Healthcare: Buy Stryker (SYK.US), sell IDEXX (IDXX.US)

Financials: Buy Blackstone (BX.US), sell ING (ING.US)

Real Estate: Buy Welltower (WELL.US), sell Costa (CSGP.US)

Information Technology: Buy Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US), sell Microchip Technology (MCHP.US)

Communications Services: Buy Meta (META.US), sell AES (AES.US)

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ReindeerApart5536
11/18
Just bought into Stryker (SYK.US) and Blackstone (BX.US) as suggested. The logic behind the sector picks makes sense. Fingers crossed this rally indeed continues.
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getintocollegern
11/18
Well, at least Oppenheimer is giving us a heads up for the party to end in 2025. Anyone else stockpiling popcorn and maybe some shorts?
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PhilosophyMassive578
11/18
As a shareholder in Dow (DOW.US), not thrilled about the'sell' recommendation. Hoping the market corrects my view and the signal is just a blip.
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shackofcards
11/18
Time to load up on Amazon (AMZN.US) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)! The future is tech, and Oppenheimer knows it. Holding strong through 2025 and beyond!
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Working_Initiative_7
11/18
Not convinced by the RSI momentum indicator. We've seen false peaks before. Waiting for a more concrete trigger before making any big moves.
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Didntlikedefaultname
11/18
Love the contrarian play suggestions! Went long on Cheniere Energy (LNG.US) and shorted Shell (SHEL.US) in Energy, and it's already paying off. Thanks for the guidance, Ari!
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