Operational Struggles and Investor Split Cloud IP's 2028 Outlook

International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP) faces a pivotal moment as it navigates a third-quarter net loss of $1.10 billion amid rising sales of $6.22 billion, according to a revised 2025 outlook projecting $24 billion in net sales, as Simply Wall St reported. The company's financial struggles have intensified scrutiny over its operational efficiency, with analysts noting that persistent mill reliability issues could undermine near-term recovery efforts despite cost-cutting measures and e-commerce-driven demand, according to Stock Titan. The amended supply agreement with Sylvamo Corp. (NYSE: SLVM), extending Riverdale Mill operations through 2026, highlights ongoing asset optimization strategies but raises questions about execution risks, as Simply Wall St reported.

Institutional investors have taken mixed stances on IP shares. Resona Asset Management Co. Ltd. increased its stake by 9.5% in Q2, holding 176,010 shares valued at $8.26 million, while Bank of Montreal Can cut its holdings by 26.5%, selling 95,504 shares to retain 265,164 shares worth $12.42 million, according to MarketBeat. The stock's negative price-to-earnings ratio (-381.30) and a dividend payout ratio of -70.88% further complicate its appeal, though the 4.9% yield from its $0.4625 quarterly dividend offers some allure, as MarketBeat noted. Analysts remain split, with a MarketBeat consensus rating of "Hold" and Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates ranging from $47.16 to $64.84 per share, as Simply Wall St reported.

Operational challenges persist. Sylvamo's planned conversion of the Riverdale Mill's No. 16 paper machine to containerboard production by Q3 2026 threatens to disrupt IP's supply chain, a move Sylvamo's CEO described as inconsistent with long-term strategy, according to Stock Titan. Meanwhile, IP's 2028 revenue forecast of $28.1 billion and $2.0 billion in earnings hinges on resolving mill reliability problems and achieving cost reductions, as Simply Wall St reported.

The stock opened at $38.13 on Nov. 7, 2025, trading below its 52-week high of $60.36. With institutional ownership at 81.95%, investor sentiment remains cautious, balancing optimism over sustainable packaging trends against skepticism about margin recovery, as MarketBeat noted.