Operation Epic Fury: The Tactical Playbook and Immediate Market Catalysts

The assault began with a single, decisive command. At 3:38 PM Friday, February 27, President Donald Trump gave the final go-ahead for Operation Epic Fury, instructing the Joint Chiefs: "Operation Epic Fury is approved. No aborts. Good luck." This authorization triggered a meticulously planned, multi-domain attack that launched at H-hour: 9:45 AM local Tehran time on Saturday, February 28.

The opening wave was a masterclass in synchronized force projection. From land and sea, more than 100 aircraft surged into the air in a single, coordinated assault. This formation included fighters, tankers, electronic warfare platforms, and long-range B-2 bombers that flew a 37-hour round trip from the U.S. mainland. Simultaneously, Tomahawk missiles were fired from U.S. Navy destroyers, while Task Force Scorpion Strike deployed low-cost one-way attack drones for the first time in combat. The initial phase was layered with non-kinetic effects, as U.S. Cyber Command and U.S. Space Command worked to blind Iran's defenses before the first bomb fell.

The scale was overwhelming. In the first 24 hours, U.S. and partner forces struck more than 1,000 targets. The mission objectives were clear and focused: to dismantle Iran's command and control, destroy its missile and drone launch capabilities, and degrade its naval forces. The Pentagon has described this as the most lethal, most complex and most precise aerial operation in history, a decisive strike that achieved overwhelming initial results.

Yet this was only the opening gambit. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the campaign is "just the beginning," and the Pentagon has warned the work will take time. The operation has now escalated into what defense leaders call major combat operations, a prolonged conflict that has already cost four American service members their lives. The tactical precision of the first wave has set the stage for a sustained campaign.

Strategic Fallout and the New Reality

The operation's immediate military consequences were decisive. On Day 1, U.S. and Israeli forces achieved their primary political objective: the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This assassination triggered a power vacuum, leading to the establishment of an Interim Leadership Council to govern Iran. The Pentagon's stated goal of dismantling Iran's command and control was met with surgical precision.

Simultaneously, the defensive posture of U.S. and allied forces proved robust. Following the initial wave of strikes, CENTCOM forces successfully repelled hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks. The operation's defensive phase was a critical success, with no reports of U.S. casualties or combat-related injuries and damage to installations remaining minimal. This capability to absorb and defeat a massive retaliatory barrage was a key element in securing the opening gambit's gains.

Viewed another way, the operation has now escalated into what defense leaders call major combat operations. The initial, overwhelming assault was just the beginning. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine stated, "This work is just beginning." The campaign has transitioned from a single, massive strike to a sustained, multi-domain conflict. The focus has shifted from initial destruction to the prolonged task of degrading Iran's ability to project power and maintain its military infrastructure, a process that officials have warned will take time.

What's Next: The Sustained Campaign and Key Catalysts

The opening gambit is over. The campaign has now escalated into what defense leaders call major combat operations, a prolonged conflict that officials have warned will take time. The immediate focus shifts from initial destruction to the sustained task of degrading Iran's ability to project power. This sets the stage for a series of specific catalysts and risks that will drive the next phase.

The most immediate political catalyst is the War Powers Resolution. The operation began on February 28, and under the law, the President has a 60-day deadline to secure congressional approval for continued military action. Lawmakers from both parties have already signaled they will examine the administration's authority, creating a clear, near-term deadline that could force a political reckoning. The Pentagon's own statement that the campaign "will take time" directly challenges the timeline of this legal requirement.

At the same time, the escalation risk has materialized. Iran has responded by launching missiles and drones at civilian targets in neighboring countries, including hotels, airports, and apartments. This shift from military to civilian targeting raises the stakes significantly, increasing the risk of broader regional conflict and drawing in more actors. The Pentagon has acknowledged this retaliation, framing it as a key part of the ongoing campaign.

The most direct market catalyst is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This critical chokepoint has been allegedly closed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, disrupting global oil shipments. Any sustained closure would immediately tighten global supply, pushing oil prices higher and creating a tangible, immediate shock to energy markets and global trade.

The bottom line is that the sustained campaign is now defined by these three catalysts: the looming legal deadline, the risk of expanded retaliation, and the physical disruption of global shipping lanes. These are the immediate factors to watch as the operation moves beyond its initial, overwhelming phase.