Opera Limited’s Earnings Call Reveals Neon Strategy Shifts, MiniPay Monetization Vagueness, and E-commerce Revenue Claims Clash

Date of Call: Feb 26, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $177M, up 22% YOY, and $615M for full year 2025, up 28% YOY
• Operating Margin: Adjusted EBITDA margin 23.6% in Q4; full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin 23.2%

Guidance:

• Q1 revenue expected to be $169M to $172M, up 18% to 21% YOY.
• Q1 adjusted EBITDA expected to be $38M to $40M, 22.9% margin at midpoint.
• Full year 2026 revenue expected to be $720M to $735M, up 17% to 20% YOY.
• Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA expected to be $167M to $172M, 23.3% margin at midpoint, implying slight tick up in profitability from 2025.
• Expect cost of revenue to represent about 38% of revenue for the year.
• Full year OpEx base pre-adjusted EBITDA expected to be $558M at midpoint.
• Marketing cost expected to grow about 10% from 2025.
• Other OpEx items pre-adjusted EBITDA expected to grow about 15% for the year.
• Cash-based compensation expense expected to grow with a percentage in the low teens.
• Launching a $300M share buyback program.

Business Commentary:

Revenue and EBITDA Growth:

• Opera Limited reported Q4 revenue of $177 million, up 22% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $42 million, a 23.6% margin.
• The growth was driven by a significant increase in advertising revenue, particularly from e-commerce, and continued scaling of user intent query revenue.

E-commerce and Advertising Expansion:

• E-commerce revenue led the company with a 25% year-over-year increase, contributing to the overall revenue growth.
• This was fueled by increased advertiser partnerships and performance-based campaigns, with e-commerce representing a substantial portion of the total market.

User and MAU Dynamics:

• Opera ended the year with 284 million MAUs, including 60 million in Western markets, and reported a 26% increase in ARPU to $2.49.
• Growth was attributed to strong user acquisition in key target markets and increased user engagement, especially in gaming and AI-powered browser features.

MiniPay and Stablecoin Wallet Growth:

• MiniPay reported over 13 million activated wallets and 390 million accumulated transactions, showing strong growth in Africa.
• The increase was driven by the platform's technical ease, low-fee transactions, and expanding partner ecosystem, with plans to make it a more global platform.

Product Innovation and AI Integration:

• The launch of new browsers like Opera Air and Opera Neon, along with enhancements to Opera One, contributed to user growth and engagement.
• These innovations, particularly AI-driven features, attracted more users and advertisers, enhancing Opera's competitive positioning in the browser market.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management expressed strong satisfaction with results exceeding guidance, describing 'unprecedented sequential increase' and 'record contribution.' Tone was confident and forward-looking, citing 'exciting' product launches, 'very positive' growth trends, and a new 'unprecedented scale' buyback program, with CEO stating '2025 was an amazing year' and looking to make 2026 'even more successful.'

Q&A:

• Question from Ronald Josey (Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research): Talk about Western user growth and ability to gain users despite competition, and traction in e-commerce advertising.
  Response: CEO highlighted strong MAU growth, especially in Western markets, driven by desktop/mobile offerings and AI features. For e-commerce, noted it is the biggest category growing faster than 25%, with significant remaining market potential, and is a key driver of overall growth.

• Question from James Callahan (Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division): Engagement and monetization of the Neon browser, and sustainability of gross margin trend.
  Response: CEO stated Neon launched mid-December, too early for significant metrics but is a testing ground for advanced AI features being moved to Opera AI, driving Western user growth and future subscription potential. CFO noted Opera Ads growing slightly faster than total revenue with margin expansion, allowing a slight EBITDA margin tick up in 2026.

• Question from Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division): Key investments to grow Neon adoption and strategic investments for the payments opportunity.
  Response: CEO discussed balancing luxury of profitable free product with paid Neon subscription for power users, prioritizing advanced orchestration features. For payments, emphasized leveraging experience in emerging markets with MiniPay, focusing on building a global platform with partners like Tether.

• Question from Naved Khan (B. Riley Securities, Inc., Research Division): Regions for Opera GX user growth and Japan/Korea performance, and thoughts on OPay IPO timing.
  Response: CEO highlighted GX's high ARPU across regions, with focus on U.S., LatAm, and growing interest in East Asia via Riot Games partnerships. CFO noted OPay is hiring experienced executives, points to public company as natural next step, but no confirmed timing.

• Question from Jonnathan Navarrete (TD Cowen, Research Division): Monetization path for MiniPay and read-through from Stripe's potential acquisition of PayPal.
  Response: CFO stated MiniPay's priority is building scale in emerging markets, monetizing through partner ecosystem integrations and expanding payment functionality, with no direct relation to Stripe/PayPal dynamics.

• Question from Mark Argento (Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC): Details on non-search query revenue growth and leverage.
  Response: CFO explained non-search query revenue exceeded $5M in Q4, up from $3M in Q3, driven by direct partner references in AI responses. It is a new, fast-growing stream that captures monetization from increased user interaction with Opera AI.

Contradiction Point 1

Neon Launch Phase and Strategy

Contradiction on Neon's launch model and target audience.

James Callahan (Piper Sandler & Co.) - James Callahan (Piper Sandler & Co.)

2025Q4: Neon launched widely in mid-December 2025, so it's too early to see significant engagement or monetization impact in Q4. It serves as a community hub for AI power users and a testing ground for advanced AI features... - Lin Song(CEO)

Can you provide an update on Neon's engagement and monetization metrics since its rollout, and discuss the sustainability of incremental and steady-state gross margins as the off-platform business scales? - Naved Khan (B. Riley Securities, Inc.)

2025Q3: Neon is still in a premium, invitation-based launch phase to build a close-knit community for feedback. The product has been extremely well received... The browser is designed for advanced, AI-forward users. - Lin Song(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

MiniPay Monetization and Revenue Model

Contradiction on MiniPay's current revenue generation and monetization focus.

Jonnathan Navarrete (TD Cowen) - Jonnathan Navarrete (TD Cowen)

2025Q4: The priority for MiniPay is to build scale and a user-friendly product... Monetization currently comes from the partner ecosystem through integrations and promotions, growing together with partners. - Frode Jacobsen(CFO)

Can you walk through MiniPay's monetization path and discuss any potential read-throughs from Stripe's acquisition of PayPal? - Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2025Q3: MiniPay is already generating revenue. The current strategy is to reinvest that revenue into marketing and partnership development to drive further adoption... - Lin Song(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

E-commerce Revenue Scale and Contribution

Contradiction on the size and maturity of the e-commerce revenue stream.

Ronald Josey (Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research) - Ronald Josey (Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research)

2025Q4: E-commerce is the biggest and fastest-growing category, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth. The e-commerce market is large ($100B+ TAM)... - Lin Song(CEO)

How do you plan to sustain Western user growth amid increased competition and leverage e-commerce traction moving forward? - Ronald Josey (Citigroup Inc., Research Division)

2025Q3: E-commerce revenue has doubled year-over-year over the past 18 months and is now approximately half of advertising revenue. Opera is under-indexing in e-commerce relative to its potential... - Frode Jacobsen(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Opera GX User Growth Assessment

Contradictory attribution for weak growth in a key segment.

What is B. Riley Securities' outlook for the company's earnings? - Naved Khan (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q4: Opera GX users are highly valuable across regions, with high ARPU. Priority is on serving major markets like the U.S., as well as LatAm. There is also interest and development in East Asian markets (Japan, Korea)... - Lin Song(CEO)

What regions are driving Opera GX user growth, particularly in Japan and Korea, and what is the potential timing for OPay's IPO? - Naved Ahmad Khan (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q2: The weakness in Opera GX growth in Q2 is attributed to seasonality, as its user base (younger gamers/Gen Z) is more affected by summer holidays. This is expected to change in Q3/Q4. - Lin Song(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

MAU (Monthly Active Users) Growth Strategy and Focus

Contradiction on whether MAU growth is a primary focus or a secondary metric to engagement/revenue.

Ronald Josey (Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research) - Ronald Josey (Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research)

2025Q4: Overall user performance in Q4 was strong, with growth in smartphone and desktop users... - Lin Song(CEO)

How do you plan to maintain Western user growth amid increased competition and leverage e-commerce traction moving forward? - Lance Vitanza (TD Cowen)

2025Q1: The company is focusing marketing spend on high-value users, leading to a trade-off of slower MAU growth for significantly higher ARPU growth (~44% YoY). - Frode Jacobsen(CFO)