Opening Bell — Stocks Edge Up as Traders Weigh Shutdown Data Void, Soft Labor Pulse

U.S. stocks ticked higher at the open Tuesday while oil slipped and gold extended gains, as investors balanced early risk-on sentiment against a murkier policy picture created by Washington’s ongoing shutdown.

Minutes after the bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 94.80 points, or 0.20%, to 46,789.8. The S&P 500 added 0.13% to 6,749.16, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.12% to 22,969.0. Small caps lagged, with the Russell 2000 off 0.02% at 246.76. In commodities, December gold traded at $3,988.40, up 0.30%, while November crude slipped 0.45% to $61.41.

The policy backdrop is turning hazier by the day. With several federal agencies shuttered, the Bureau of Labor Statistics isn’t releasing the jobs report or CPI on schedule, a development that complicates the Federal Reserve’s already delicate debate over further rate cuts, according to J.P. Morgan research.

“As long as the government shutdown goes on, we will be operating a little bit blind. But we think that in this current economic environment, it still makes sense for the Fed to cut in October,” said Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist. A longer standoff could distort how markets handicap policy: “If the shutdown is lengthier, it could muddy the waters about how markets price the likelihood of any rate cuts past December,” said Jay Barry, J.P. Morgan’s head of Global Rates Strategy.

Beyond the data blackout, the fundamental pulse looks subdued. Apollo’s Torsten Slok highlights that the hiring and quits rates are “very low,” consistent with a labor market that has “come to a standstill,” alongside fewer job openings and slower job growth. That cooling mix helps explain why cyclicals have been uneven while gold’s bid persists as investors hedge policy and growth uncertainty.

Bond-market mechanics remain orderly. Because the fight in Washington isn’t a debt-ceiling episode, the Treasury Department continues to issue securities, though T-bill supply could run slightly lighter as financing needs ebb during the shutdown, J.P. Morgan notes. Markets may feel a different pinch if the CPI release is delayed: pricing for inflation-linked products such as TIPS and inflation swaps could diverge from current levels under fallback provisions, the bank adds.

Early equity gains suggest investors are still leaning on the notion that shutdowns tend to be transitory. But with each week shaving roughly 0.1% from annualized GDP, the cumulative drag grows, raising the stakes around how long the stalemate lasts and how the Fed parses incomplete information.