Opendoor Stock (OPEN) Surges 90% Intraday: What's Fueling This Meme Stock Frenzy?

Summary
• Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) surges 89.72% intraday to $4.27, hitting its 52-week high of $4.31
• Turnover soars 108.57% as retail traders propel the stock to $4.3B market cap
• Retail-driven frenzy mirrors Carvana’s 2022 rebound narrative, with Eric Jackson’s $82 price target fueling speculation
• Key levels: Day high of $4.31, day low of $2.62, and a 188% rally since July 15

The real estate tech stock is experiencing a meme-fueled explosion, driven by a viral thesis from EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson and a surge in retail participation. With options volatility spiking to 569% and turnover breaking $688M, the market is watching whether this frenzy can sustain a path toward $40 or face a brutal correction.

Meme Stock Resurgence Driven by Viral Thesis and Short Squeeze Potential
Opendoor’s meteoric 90% intraday surge stems from a perfect storm of retail trading activity and a bullish narrative from hedge fund manager Eric Jackson. His viral post on X outlined a $82 price target based on a hypothetical profitable Q2 report and a Carvana-style turnaround. The stock’s recent 188% rally since July 15 has created a short squeeze scenario, with aggressive cost-cutting and broker partnerships cited as catalysts. Despite a $3.8B cumulative loss history and a $1.16 52-week low, retail traders are betting on a $5.75B revenue 2025 target and a 5x EV/Revenue multiple, mirroring Carvana’s 2023 recovery.

High-Volatility Options and ETF Plays for a Short-Term Bullish Bet
• MACD: 0.2597 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.1019 (supporting trend), Histogram: 0.1578 (expanding momentum)
• RSI: 93.37 (overbought), 200D MA: 1.31 (far below price), Upper Bollinger Band: 1.75 (price at 4.27, far above)

Technical indicators scream short-term overextension. The stock is trading at 3.25x its 52-week range, with RSI at extreme levels and MACD suggesting diverging bullish momentum. Key resistance is the 52-week high at $4.31, while support lies at the 200D MA ($1.31) and 50D MA ($0.75).

Top Options:
• OPEN20250725C4 (Call, $4 strike, July 25 expiration):
- IV: 526.23% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.643 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.109 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.146 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $4.6M
- Leverage Ratio: 3.91%
- Payoff at 5% Upside (4.48): $0.48/share gain (115% return on $4 strike)
- Why: High gamma and IV create explosive potential if the $4.31 52-week high is broken.

• OPEN20250801C4 (Call, $4 strike, August 1 expiration):
- IV: 444.32% (sustained volatility)
- Delta: 0.673 (strong directional bias)
- Theta: -0.055 (slower decay than July 25)
- Gamma: 0.108 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $1.2M
- Leverage Ratio: 3.07%
- Payoff at 5% Upside (4.48): $0.48/share gain (120% return on $4 strike)
- Why: Balances time decay with leverage for a mid-term play on Jackson’s August 6 earnings event.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize the July 25 $4 call for a 1- to 2-day squeeze play, while the August 1 $4 call offers a safer runway for a $40 thesis. Both contracts demand strict stop-loss discipline as overbought conditions invite a sharp reversal.

Backtest Opendoor Stock Performance
The backtest of a 90% intraday surge on the OPEN ETF shows a positive impact, with a maximum return of 0.71% on the day following the surge. The event occurred on July 20, 2025.

Speculative Frenzy or Sustained Turnaround? Watch for $4.31 Breakout
The 90% intraday surge reflects a speculative frenzy more than a fundamental turnaround, with retail sentiment and short-covering driving the move. While Eric Jackson’s $82 thesis hinges on a profitable Q2 report and a Carvana-style rebound, the stock’s extreme overbought levels and 569% implied volatility suggest a volatile near-term path. Investors should monitor the $4.31 52-week high as a critical breakout point and the $2.615 intraday low as a potential support floor. For context, sector leader Z (Zillow) is down -0.38% today, highlighting the lack of real estate services sector alignment. A sustained break above $4.31 could validate Jackson’s thesis, but a close below $2.615 would signal a return to the $0.83 analyst price target. Action: Aggressive bulls may consider OPEN20250725C4 for a short-term squeeze play, but cap risk with a tight stop below $3.50.