Opendoor Soars 13.76% on Trump’s Mortgage Bond Move: Is This the Start of a Real Estate Rally?

Summary
• OPEN surges 13.76% intraday to $7.315, breaking above 200D avg of $4.0959
• Trump’s $200B mortgage bond purchase sparks sector-wide optimism
• Options frenzy: 22K contracts traded on 1/16 expiration date
• Sector peers like Zillow (-0.26%) lag as Opendoor leads real estate rebound

Opendoor’s explosive 13.76% rally on 1/9/26 has ignited a firestorm in real estate services, driven by President Trump’s directive to buy $200B in mortgage bonds. With intraday volume hitting 144.9M shares and options turnover surging, the stock’s 7.08–7.92 range reflects a market betting on sustained momentum. Sector news highlights Trump’s housing affordability push, while technicals suggest a breakout from a long-term trading range.

Trump’s $200B Mortgage Bond Purchase Sparks Opendoor Surge
President Trump’s executive order to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds has directly triggered Opendoor’s 13.76% intraday surge. This move aims to lower mortgage rates and boost housing affordability, aligning with recent FHFA director Bill Pulte’s comments on affordability challenges. The real estate services sector is reacting strongly to this policy shift, with Opendoor’s business model—focused on iBuying and digital home transactions—positioned to benefit from increased market activity. Sector news from CNBC and Homes.com underscores the administration’s focus on institutional housing bans and rate reductions, creating a tailwind for Opendoor’s operations.

Real Estate Services Sector Rally as Zillow Slumps
While Opendoor surges, sector leader Zillow Group (ZG) declines 0.26%, highlighting divergent market sentiment. Zillow’s exposure to residential real estate commissions and its recent struggles with inventory management contrast with Opendoor’s institutional bond-driven growth narrative. The 13.76% move in OPEN versus ZG’s decline suggests investors are rotating into Trump-aligned real estate plays that directly benefit from mortgage rate reductions and institutional housing policy shifts.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Opendoor’s Volatility with High-Gamma Contracts
• RSI: 54.92 (neutral bias)
• MACD: -0.215 (bullish crossover near 0 line)
• 200D avg: $4.0959 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 7.083 (upper band) vs. 6.346 (middle band)
• Gamma: 0.395 (high sensitivity to price moves)

Opendoor’s technicals suggest a breakout from a long-term trading range, with the 200D average acting as a strong support level. The 54.92 RSI indicates neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram’s positive divergence hints at short-term bullish energy. Two top options for capitalizing on this move are:

• OPEN20260116C7.5 (Call, $7.5 strike, 1/16 exp):
- IV: 92.51% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 21.63% (high gearing)
- Delta: 0.473 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.0415 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.395 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 1.02M (liquid)
This contract offers explosive potential if Opendoor maintains its 7.315 level, with a 5% upside scenario yielding a $0.375 payoff (max(0, 7.68-7.5)).

• OPEN20260116C7 (Call, $7 strike, 1/16 exp):
- IV: 90.34% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 12.47% (moderate gearing)
- Delta: 0.671 (strong directional bias)
- Theta: -0.045 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.368 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 3.59M (extremely liquid)
This contract provides a safer play with a 5% upside payoff of $0.655 (max(0, 7.68-7)).

Aggressive bulls should consider OPEN20260116C7.5 into a test of the 7.92 intraday high, while OPEN20260116C7 offers a more conservative entry with higher liquidity.

Backtest Opendoor Stock Performance
The backtest of the entire market's performance after an intraday percentage change of more than 14% from 2022 to the present shows a negative impact, with the maximum return being -0.01% on the date of the event. This indicates that such a significant intraday surge has historically led to underperformance in the short term.

Act Now: Opendoor’s Momentum Could Define Early 2026 Housing Market
Opendoor’s 13.76% surge reflects a market betting on Trump’s housing affordability agenda, with the 7.315 level acting as a critical pivot. The 200D average at $4.0959 remains a strong support, while the 10.87 52W high offers a long-term ceiling. Sector leader Zillow’s -0.26% move highlights the divergence in real estate plays, with Opendoor’s institutional bond-driven narrative gaining traction. Investors should monitor the 7.08 Bollinger Band support and the 7.92 intraday high for directional clues. With options like OPEN20260116C7.5 offering 21.63% leverage, now is the time to position for a potential 2026 housing market breakout.