OpenAI Projects 1150 Billion Dollar Cash Burn Through 2029, Driven by AI Ventures

OpenAI, a global leader in artificial intelligence, is embarking on an unprecedented capital-intensive venture. According to the company's latest financial projections shared with its shareholders, OpenAI is expected to consume a cumulative 1150 billion dollars in cash from this year to 2029. This figure represents a significant increase from the company's previous estimates, which were approximately 800 billion dollars less.

Including the approximately 20 billion dollars already spent over the past two years, OpenAI's substantial financial needs underscore the assessment made by its chief executive: OpenAI may be the most capital-intensive startup in history. On the other hand, driven by the strong growth of ChatGPT, the company is more optimistic about its commercial prospects, raising its revenue forecast for 2030 by approximately 15% to target the 2000 billion dollar mark.

OpenAI's latest cash flow projections reveal a steep cost curve. The company expects to spend over 80 billion dollars in cash this year, approximately 15 billion dollars more than initially projected at the start of the year. Next year, this figure is expected to double to over 170 billion dollars, 100 billion dollars more than previously anticipated. Looking ahead, the projected expenditures for 2027 and 2028 are approximately 350 billion dollars and 450 billion dollars, respectively—with the 2028 projection being more than four times the previous estimate of 110 billion dollars.

The bulk of this substantial funding will be allocated to four key areas. Despite the significant cost pressures, OpenAI's commercialization efforts are accelerating, and its revenue outlook is improving. The company expects total revenue to reach 130 billion dollars this year, more than triple last year's figure. The more critical 2030 revenue forecast has been raised to approximately 2000 billion dollars.

The core driver of this optimistic outlook is ChatGPT. However, not all business segments are experiencing growth. The company has reduced its revenue forecast for API (Application Programming Interface) business by 50 billion dollars over the next five years and decreased the revenue forecast for "Agents" (AI products capable of handling multi-step tasks) by approximately 260 billion dollars. One possible explanation is that these technologies will be more integrated into ChatGPT rather than offered as standalone products. Regardless, the robust revenue growth of ChatGPT is sufficient to offset the reduced expectations for these business segments.

Despite the astonishing rate of cash burn, capital remains undeterred. Numerous large investment firms, including SoftBank, Thrive Capital, and Dragoneer, continue to actively purchase OpenAI's stock, driving its latest valuation to 5000 billion dollars—nearly double the figure from six months ago and roughly a fifth of the market value of Google, which reported a net profit of 1000 billion dollars last year. Many investors view OpenAI as a barometer for the proliferation of AI technology, firmly believing in its potential for substantial commercial returns.

To support its massive data center construction plans, going public may be an inevitable choice for OpenAI. Becoming a publicly traded company would enable it to more easily raise funds through methods such as issuing bonds, or even emulate Amazon's AWS by leasing servers to other AI developers. However, this path is fraught with challenges. The company's unique structure, where its for-profit business is controlled by a non-profit parent company, as well as the complex legal and contractual relationships with Elon Musk and its largest external shareholder, Microsoft (which, according to the agreement, is entitled to 20% of OpenAI's revenue), could add variables to its future public offering.