OpenAI's Integration of Checkout System in ChatGPT: A New Era in Commerce

Bernstein analysts believe that OpenAI's integration of a checkout system into ChatGPT marks the beginning of a new era in commerce, known as the Agentic One. This shift could lift retail e-commerce growth by 1.5-2.5 percentage points annually and unlock new commercial models. Major payment players, such as Visa and Mastercard, are adapting their products with AI capabilities, while card networks and processors are poised to benefit. However, questions remain about the scale of traffic OpenAI can command and the impact on on-platform ads and payments.

OpenAI is set to revolutionize online commerce with its integration of a payment checkout system within ChatGPT. This move, according to Bernstein analysts, marks the beginning of a new era in commerce, dubbed the "Agentic One." The integration aims to allow users to complete purchases directly within the chat interface, with merchants paying affiliate and payment processing fees to OpenAI.

The development of this feature is still in its early stages, with OpenAI and partners like Shopify presenting early versions to brands and discussing financial terms. The checkout system is expected to tap into the heavy user traffic on ChatGPT, supplementing OpenAI's traditional subscription model. The company's annualized revenue run rate surged to $10 billion as of June 2025, up from $5.5 billion in December 2024, despite a significant loss of around $5 billion in 2024 [1].

Major payment players, such as Visa and Mastercard, are adapting their products with AI capabilities to stay competitive. Bernstein analysts estimate that this shift could lift retail e-commerce growth by 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points annually. The analysts also note that agentic commerce can unlock new commercial models and fundamentally change how we spend our time online.

However, questions remain about the scale of traffic OpenAI can command and the potential impact on on-platform ads and payments. Bernstein flagged these uncertainties as key points to watch. OpenAI's earlier launch of Operator, with partners such as Uber, DoorDash, and Instacart, showed clear signs of this trajectory [2].

OpenAI's efforts to diversify its revenue streams and enhance its productivity tools indicate a strategic shift towards leveraging its extensive user base and technological capabilities to generate new income sources. The company is also developing AI tools for Excel and PowerPoint, aiming to reduce users' reliance on Microsoft's Office apps, and an AI agent that can generate reports based on public or corporate data.

In conclusion, OpenAI's integration of a checkout system within ChatGPT is a significant development that could reshape online commerce. While the potential benefits are substantial, the long-term impact and potential challenges remain to be seen.

References:
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-working-payment-checkout-system-within-chatgpt-ft-reports-2025-07-16/
[2] https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/2025-is-seeing-the-beginning-of-a-new-era-in-commerce--the-agentic-one-4140460

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