OpenAI's Altman Sounds Alarm: AI Bubble Bursts With Speculative Overheating

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has sparked debate within the AI investment community by acknowledging the presence of speculative overvaluation in the artificial intelligence market, despite expressing confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the industry. In multiple recent statements, Altman noted that while the core supply chain for AI remains robust, there is a growing influx of speculative capital targeting companies with only perceived potential, creating localized overvaluations. His remarks followed the release of OpenAI’s latest GPT-5 model, which faced criticism for lacking intuitiveness and prompted a return to legacy GPT-4 models for paying customers. Altman emphasized caution regarding bullish projections, including the concept of artificial general intelligence (AGI), which he suggested is becoming less relevant in current discourse [6].

These comments come amid broader concerns about an AI-driven investment bubble. Torsten Slok, head economist at Apollo Global Management, recently argued that the current AI boom exceeds the scale of the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, citing inflated valuations of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500. However, others like Ray Wang, research director at Futurum Group, remain optimistic about the AI and semiconductor sectors, citing strong supply chains and a favorable long-term outlook for the industry [6]. Skepticism persists, particularly in response to claims from Chinese startups such as DeepSeek, which asserted its AI models were developed for under $6 million—a fraction of the costs incurred by U.S. competitors like OpenAI. These assertions have fueled speculation about the competitive landscape and potential shifts in investment trends [5].

OpenAI itself has seen significant financial activity, with Altman stating the company is on track to generate over $20 billion in annual recurring revenue this year, though it continues to operate at a loss. The firm recently secured $40 billion in funding at a $300 billion valuation, and is now planning a stock offering valued at approximately $500 billion. Altman has also outlined ambitious infrastructure plans, including trillions in data center expansions, and hinted at a potential interest in acquiring assets like Google’s Chrome browser. These developments highlight the company’s strategic focus on long-term growth despite current financial challenges [6].

Meanwhile, the U.S. government has taken steps to bolster domestic AI leadership through public-private partnerships. The National Science Foundation (NSF) has partnered with NVIDIA to fund the Open Multimodal AI Infrastructure to Accelerate Science (OMAI) project, with a combined investment of $152 million. Led by the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2), the initiative aims to develop open-source AI models tailored for scientific research, addressing the growing gap between academic innovation and commercial development. The project is expected to advance research in areas such as materials science, biology, and energy by enabling faster data analysis and code generation [2]. This effort aligns with the White House AI Action Plan, which seeks to reinforce American leadership in AI by promoting open models and expanding access to cutting-edge research tools [2].

NVIDIA also recently announced the release of Granary, a large-scale open speech dataset and accompanying AI models designed to improve multilingual speech recognition and translation. The tools, including the Canary-1b-v2 and Parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v3 models, target 25 European languages and are intended to enhance the development of speech-based applications such as chatbots and real-time translation services. By providing high-quality training data and open-source methodologies, NVIDIA aims to reduce dependency on human-annotated datasets and accelerate innovation in speech AI, particularly for underrepresented languages [3].

Despite the optimism surrounding these advancements, Altman’s cautionary tone underscores the industry’s need for balanced investment. While the long-term trajectory of AI development remains strong, the current environment is marked by uncertainty and risk, with overvaluation and speculative investments creating vulnerabilities. Analysts and investors must carefully evaluate the sustainability of these trends, particularly as infrastructure and research efforts continue to evolve.

Source: [1] OpenAI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI) [2] NSF and NVIDIA partnership enables Ai2 to develop fully open AI (https://www.nsf.gov/news/nsf-nvidia-partnership-enables-ai2-develop-fully-open-ai) [3] NVIDIA Releases Open Dataset, Models for Multilingual Speech AI (https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/speech-ai-dataset-models/) [4] OpenAI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI) [5] OpenAI's Sam Altman says AI market is in a bubble (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/openai-sam-altman-warns-ai-market-is-in-a-bubble.html) [6] OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warns of AI bubble, says investors are overexcited (https://nypost.com/2025/08/18/business/openai-ceo-sam-altman-warns-of-ai-bubble-says-investors-are-overexcited-report/)