OpenAI's Agent Push: A $25B Revenue Catalyst or a $30B Bet?

OpenAI is making a direct, high-stakes bet on the explosive AI agents market. The company has hired Peter Steinberger, the creator of the viral AI agent OpenClaw, and plans to integrate the tool as a core product. This move is a clear strategic pivot, targeting a market projected to grow at a 46.3% CAGR to reach $52.6 billion by 2030. By acquiring the talent behind a rapidly adopted tool, OpenAI aims to accelerate its product offerings in this critical growth segment.

This hire is timed with OpenAI's urgent need to catch up in enterprise sales. The company has appointed Barret Zoph to lead its push into selling AI to business customers, a role that underscores the importance of this battleground. Despite launching its enterprise product first, OpenAI is losing ground, with its market share for enterprise LLM usage plummeting from 50% in 2023 to 27% at the end of 2025. Rivals Anthropic and Google are gaining traction, making this acquisition a defensive and offensive play to regain momentum.

The bottom line is that OpenAI is betting that owning a viral agent will fuel its enterprise growth. The $500 billion valuation company is throwing resources at securing top AI talent, as seen in past acquisitions. This move to bring in OpenClaw's creator is a calculated attempt to leverage a popular consumer tool into a scalable enterprise product, directly addressing the competitive pressure it faces in 2026.

The Financial Engine: Revenue Projections and Market Impact

OpenAI's ambitious growth hinges on a single, staggering revenue target: 2026 revenue could top $25 billion. That figure, if achieved, would place the company on a trajectory to approach the scale of industry giants like Nvidia. This financial engine is the core of the investment thesis, with SoftBank's massive capital backing the bet. The Japanese conglomerate has already committed a total of US$34 billion into OpenAI and is actively planning a further capital injection of up to US$30 billion in the next funding round.

The strategic push for AI agents is directly tied to this revenue goal, specifically in the critical enterprise segment where OpenAI is losing ground. The company's market share for enterprise LLM usage has plummeted from 50% in 2023 to 27% at the end of 2025. With Anthropic and Google gaining traction, accelerating enterprise sales is non-negotiable. The hire of OpenClaw's creator and the appointment of a dedicated leader for enterprise sales are tactical moves to reverse this trend and fuel the top-line growth needed to hit the $25B target.

The financial setup is one of extreme conviction and concentration. SoftBank's willingness to double down with another $30B signals absolute faith in OpenAI's path to a post-raise valuation of US$750 billion. This external capital provides a runway, but it also raises the stakes. The company must convert its ambitious revenue projections into real, scalable enterprise adoption. Any stumble in this high-stakes growth race would not only jeopardize its own financial trajectory but also the massive bets placed on it by its most prominent backers.

Catalysts and Risks: Execution and the Multi-Agent Future

The near-term catalyst is clear: integrating OpenClaw's capabilities into OpenAI's product suite. CEO Sam Altman stated that the tool will quickly become core to our product offerings. This move aims to leverage the viral agent's automation prowess-its ability to manage email and use online services-to accelerate enterprise adoption and reverse market share losses. The hire of creator Peter Steinberger is a direct tactical step to fast-track this integration and capture momentum in the booming AI agents market.

The key near-term risk is the security and stability of the open-source model. Earlier this month, researchers discovered over 400 malicious skills uploaded to OpenClaw's hub. This vulnerability highlights the inherent challenge of an open platform where users can freely modify and deploy agents. For OpenAI, which plans to support the project as an open-source foundation, this creates a reputational and operational friction point that could slow enterprise adoption if not rigorously managed.

The long-term bet is on multi-agent systems, where agents interact autonomously. Altman has called this concept central to the future, stating that Steinberger has "a lot of amazing ideas" about getting agents to work together. This vision represents the next evolution beyond single-task automation. Success here would fundamentally change how AI tools are used, but it also introduces a new layer of complexity and potential instability that OpenAI must navigate as it scales its new product core.