Open Campus/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-09)

• Open Campus/Tether (EDUUSDT) fell from 0.1485 to 0.1414, showing bearish momentum and high volatility.
• Volatility spiked during the 24-hour period, with price range expanding beyond 5% and key support levels tested.
• A bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests weakening bullish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the sharp decline, indicating increased uncertainty.
• Notional turnover surged during the afternoon ET selloff, confirming the bearish bias.

Open Campus/Tether (EDUUSDT) opened at 0.1466 (12:00 ET – 1) and closed at 0.1414 (12:00 ET), reaching a high of 0.1493 and a low of 0.1362. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 9.96 million units, with notional turnover amounting to $1.37 million. The pair experienced a sharp selloff from 0.1493 to 0.1362, driven by strong bearish momentum and high volatility.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern formation over the past 24 hours is heavily bearish, with a distinct breakdown in key resistance levels. A strong bearish flag pattern formed during the early part of the session, followed by a piercing 15-minute candlestick (0.1493 to 0.1362). Critical support levels at 0.1470 and 0.1450 were tested and broken. A long lower shadow at 0.1463 (21:45 ET) hinted at a temporary bounce, but it failed to confirm a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. For daily timeframes, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are likely positioned above the current price, suggesting a deeper bearish trend could be in place. If the 200-day MA is also above 0.1414, this would indicate a bearish alignment across all major timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence, with the histogram contracting on a new lower low in price, indicating waning selling pressure. The RSI, however, fell into oversold territory (below 30) during the 10:00–11:00 ET selloff, suggesting potential near-term bounce. That said, the RSI failed to create a strong oversold rebound and remains under 40, signaling a continuation of bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the late-ET selloff, indicating heightened volatility and uncertainty. The price traded well below the lower band for multiple periods, especially during the 9:30–10:30 ET breakdown to 0.1384. A contraction in the band width earlier in the session (0.1475–0.1485) preceded the sharp decline, suggesting a potential breakout to the downside was expected by volatility indicators.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 9:30–10:30 ET period and again from 14:45–15:00 ET, coinciding with key breakdowns in support. Notional turnover surged during the same periods, confirming bearish conviction. A divergence between the price low and turnover low occurred during the 15:45–16:00 ET period, suggesting waning bearish momentum, though it was not strong enough to reverse the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.1493 to 0.1362 swing, key retracement levels at 61.8% (~0.1419) and 50% (~0.1428) are being tested. The price found brief support at 61.8% but failed to hold. A break below 0.1419 could lead to the next level at 38.2% (~0.1441). On the daily chart, a larger swing from previous highs (not in this dataset) may suggest a deeper bearish structure, especially if the 200-day MA is above current levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a bearish breakout approach, using a 20-period EMA and RSI as confirmation tools. A sell signal would be triggered when price closes below the 20-period EMA and RSI remains below 40 for two consecutive bars, with a stop placed above the recent swing high. This aligns with the observed bearish divergence and breakdown seen in the past 24 hours. A trailing stop could be used as the move unfolds, targeting the next Fibonacci level or key support. The recent volume surge confirms the validity of the trade entry and increases the probability of a successful short.