OPEC Expects Strong Q3 Oil Demand and Tight Market Ahead Despite Rising Output

OPEC expects strong Q3 oil demand and a tight market ahead despite increasing output. The group's secretary general anticipates "very strong" demand in the third quarter and a tight supply-demand balance in the coming months. OPEC, together with its allies, is increasing oil production.

OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, expects a robust Q3 oil demand and a tight market in the coming months, despite increasing output. The group's secretary general, Haitham Al Ghais, recently stated that demand is strong and supply will remain tight into Q4 [3].

OPEC's latest World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2024 projects a significant increase in global oil demand, reaching over 120 million barrels per day by 2050 [4]. This forecast is in stark contrast to predictions from other major entities, such as BP Plc, Bank of America, and the International Energy Agency, which anticipate demand growth will cease within the next decade due to factors like peaking in top consumer China [1].

The group has also lowered its projections for oil demand over the next four years, predicting an average of 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, compared to 108 million bpd last year [1]. This reduction is partly attributed to the U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accords and India's economic growth, which are expected to drive oil demand [1].

Despite these forecasts, OPEC remains confident in the market's balance. Secretary General Al Ghais dismissed recession noise and stressed that real-world signals, such as travel season, refining margins, and petrol drawdowns, confirm resilience [3]. He also emphasized that the group is united, data-driven, and far from done, with critics' claims of losing discipline being unfounded [3].

OPEC's optimism is supported by recent market trends. On July 1, 2025, Benchmark Brent crude prices rose 0.3% to $68.87 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up by 0.3% to $66.79 a barrel [2]. These increases reflect investor expectations of a weaker market outlook and potential sanctions on Russia.

In conclusion, while OPEC anticipates strong Q3 oil demand and a tight market, the group remains cautious about external factors that could influence the market, such as geopolitical threats and economic growth. The group's confidence in its data-driven approach and the resilience of demand signals a positive outlook for the oil market in the coming months.

References:
[1] https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/opec-sees-oil-demand-climbing-through-2050-thanks-in-part-to-trump-s-paris-climate-accord-exit/ch8cIMRR5mr
[2] https://kfgo.com/2025/07/10/oil-prices-recover-slightly-but-us-tariffs-opec-downgrade-weigh/
[3] https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2025/07/10/relax-its-chill-baby-chill-opec-assures-inventories-stay-tight/
[4] https://publications.opec.org/woo