OPEC Cuts 2025 Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth Forecast by 11%

OPEC has revised downwards its forecast for the growth in oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries in 2025. The organization now expects these countries to increase their supply by approximately 800,000 barrels per day, a reduction from the previous estimate of 900,000 barrels per day. This adjustment comes as a response to the recent decline in oil prices, which has led to a decrease in capital expenditures within the industry.

The downward revision is particularly notable for the United States, where the expected increase in oil production for 2025 has been lowered from 400,000 barrels per day to 300,000 barrels per day. This change reflects the broader trend of reduced investment in exploration and production activities, with OPEC estimating a 5% year-on-year decrease in such investments for 2025.

The reduction in supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries is expected to ease the pressure on OPEC+ members, which include Russia and other allies, in their efforts to balance the global oil market. The organization acknowledged that while the industry continues to focus on efficiency improvements, the decline in upstream investment poses a significant challenge to maintaining production levels in the 2025-2026 period.

Despite these adjustments, OPEC has maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, citing stable demand data from the first quarter and the impact of tariffs. The organization also welcomed the recent trade agreement between the United States and China, noting that it could pave the way for a more durable agreement and help normalize trade flows. However, OPEC cautioned that tariff levels may remain higher than before the trade tensions escalated in April.