OPEC+ to Boost September Production by 55,000 Barrels per Day

Goldman Sachs has predicted that OPEC+ will further increase production in September, following a 54.8 thousand barrels per day increase in August. This move is expected to normalize oil production capacity and balance the global oil market, which is currently experiencing strong demand.

The investment bank anticipates that the eight member countries of OPEC+ will raise their crude oil production by 55 thousand barrels per day in September. This increase is part of a broader trend, with Goldman Sachs estimating that from March to September this year, OPEC+ will add 1.67 million barrels per day to their production, reaching a total of 33.2 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia is projected to contribute more than 60% of this increase.

Despite the expected increase in production, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for Brent crude oil prices, predicting $59 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $56 per barrel for 2026. This is due to anticipated shortfalls in oil supply, particularly from Russia. The bank also highlights upside risks to oil demand, with global consumption expected to rise by 60 thousand barrels per day in 2025 and 100 thousand barrels per day in 2026. This growth is driven by strong oil demand in China, resilient global economic activity, and a potential further depreciation of the U.S. dollar.

However, Goldman Sachs also warns of downside risks to international oil prices in 2026. These include the expected lifting of OPEC+'s post-pandemic production cuts, totaling 1.65 million barrels per day, and the increasing likelihood of a U.S. economic recession, which could dampen oil demand. The bank's economists estimate a 30% probability of a U.S. recession.