OPEC+ to Boost Output 548000 BPD in September Amid Price Pressure

OPEC+ has reached a preliminary agreement to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, a move that will fully reverse a 2.2 million bpd supply cut implemented in 2023 by eight of its members. The decision is expected to be finalized during a virtual meeting scheduled for Sunday, following a series of production hikes initiated in April in response to market volatility triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariff measures [1]. The UAE is also receiving a separate, phased production increase, which is being integrated into the broader strategy [1].

The production boost reflects a strategic pivot by OPEC+ from prioritizing price support through supply restraint to addressing market conditions shaped by robust summer demand and geopolitical factors. This shift has already had visible effects, with oil prices declining in early August, as Brent crude dropped to $69.67 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate fell to $67.33. The price correction occurred amid concerns about increased global supply and weaker U.S. economic data, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added in July and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% [1].

Despite the recent price decline, oil managed to post weekly gains, with Brent up nearly 6% and WTI up 6.29%. However, analysts warn that the trend may reverse as OPEC+ continues to unwind its cuts. An additional 1.66 million bpd of output remains officially suspended until the end of 2026, but there are growing expectations that this output could be brought back earlier if current demand conditions persist [1]. This potential early return of supply has raised concerns about a global oil surplus later this year, especially as economic growth cools and demand outlooks remain uncertain [3].

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are adding complexity to the situation. Trump’s administration has threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries continuing to import Russian crude unless a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached soon. These measures could disrupt supply chains and push prices higher, conflicting with Trump’s push for lower energy costs. In a bid to maintain internal cohesion, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak recently visited Riyadh to meet with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, emphasizing the ongoing partnership between the two key OPEC+ players [1].

While the 548,000 bpd production increase is largely expected to be confirmed this weekend, some internal discussions suggest the final volume may be slightly lower [1]. Regardless of the exact figure, the move signals OPEC+’s willingness to rapidly adjust output in response to market dynamics, even at the risk of creating another oversupply. With demand under pressure from slowing global economic activity and political uncertainties, the coming months will be crucial in determining how long the alliance’s aggressive production strategy remains in place.

Source: [1] OPEC+ Agrees In Principle To Another Bumper Supply (https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/opec-agrees-in-principle-to-another-bumper-supply-increase) [2] OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Another Bumper Supply (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-02/opec-agrees-in-principle-to-548k-b-d-hike-in-sept-delegate) [3] Crude oil prices slide 3% on OPEC+ output increase and (https://www.polymerupdate.com/News/Details/1406295)