OPEC+ to Boost Output 548,000 BPD in September Amid Market Adjustments

OPEC+ has reached a preliminary agreement to boost oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, effectively reversing a 2.2 million bpd supply cut that had been in place since 2023. The production increase is expected to be finalized during a virtual meeting among member states over the weekend, with the United Arab Emirates receiving a phased addition to its quota. The move reflects the alliance’s strategic shift from maintaining oil prices through supply restraint to responding to evolving market conditions shaped by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand fluctuations [1].

This decision marks a continuation of OPEC+’s aggressive output expansion, which began with a surprise acceleration of cut unwinding in early April. The group has since implemented a series of significant production increases, with the latest adjustment serving as the final step in restoring the 2.2 million bpd previously withheld. While the decision has offered some relief in energy markets—particularly for consumers in the U.S.—it has also heightened concerns about an impending global supply surplus as more output returns [1].

Brent crude prices have fallen to $69.67 per barrel as of early August, with West Texas Intermediate at $67.33, reflecting the market’s response to both the OPEC+ action and weak U.S. economic data. Despite the downward pressure, both benchmarks recorded weekly gains, with Brent up nearly 6% and WTI rising by 6.29%. Analysts, however, remain cautious. Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital LLC, noted that producers may soon pause further output increases while assessing broader macroeconomic trends [1].

The group still has 1.66 million bpd of output officially scheduled to remain offline until the end of 2026. Yet market expectations are growing that this supply could return earlier than planned, depending on how demand evolves. Such a scenario could amplify the risk of an oversupply later in the year, especially as global growth slows and energy demand outlooks weaken [3].

The situation is further complicated by geopolitical developments. The U.S. government has threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian oil unless a ceasefire is announced in the Ukraine war soon. These measures could disrupt global supply chains and drive prices upward, contradicting President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for lower energy costs. In response to these pressures, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak recently visited Riyadh to discuss cooperation with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, highlighting the continuing alignment between the two OPEC+ leaders [1].

While the final production increase is expected to be confirmed by the weekend, some internal discussions suggest the actual volume may fall slightly short of the 548,000 bpd initially proposed [1]. Nevertheless, the move underscores OPEC+’s willingness to rapidly adjust output in response to shifting conditions, even at the risk of oversupply. With demand under pressure from slowing global growth and political uncertainties, the coming months will be pivotal in determining the sustainability of the alliance’s current strategy.

Sources:

[1] OPEC+ Agrees In Principle To Another Bumper Supply (https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/opec-agrees-in-principle-to-another-bumper-supply-increase)

[2] OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Another Bumper Supply (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-02/opec-agrees-in-principle-to-548k-b-d-hike-in-sept-delegate)

[3] Crude oil prices slide 3% on OPEC+ output increase and (https://www.polymerupdate.com/News/Details/1406295)