OPEC+ to Boost Oil Production by 547000 BPD Starting September 2025

OPEC+ is preparing a significant shift in its strategy, as Russia and Saudi Arabia lead a coordinated increase in oil production of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September 2025 [1]. The move, agreed upon during a virtual meeting, reflects a strategic pivot from a price-focused approach to one emphasizing market share. This decision marks a departure from the production cuts that dominated the cartel’s strategy in recent years and aims to respond to evolving supply and demand dynamics amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [2].

The production hike, which accounts for 0.6% of global oil consumption, is the largest single increase by OPEC+ in recent history [3]. It underscores the group’s intent to maintain its influence in a rapidly changing energy landscape. Saudi Arabia and Russia, as key players, are driving this initiative to reassert their dominance in the global oil market, even as alternative energy sources gain traction [4].

The announcement has already triggered market reactions. Brent crude, the international benchmark, remains stable at around $70 per barrel, a level significantly lower than the $120 highs seen in early 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5]. Analysts suggest that the increase may help stabilize oil prices in the short term, though its long-term success will depend on how global demand evolves and how OPEC+ adapts its strategy [6].

Geopolitical tensions are intensifying alongside the production shift. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of new sanctions and trade restrictions against Russia, including a potential 100% indirect tariff on Russian exports, including oil. These measures are expected to directly impact countries such as India, which has become the second-largest importer of Russian crude, consuming 1.6 million barrels per day [7]. Despite American pressure, India has demonstrated its intent to maintain energy ties with Moscow, highlighting the growing diversification of global energy trade and the rise of alternative economic blocs such as BRICS [8].

The OPEC+ decision also reflects a broader strategic vision. The group is forecasting sustained global oil demand until mid-century, a stance that contrasts with the International Energy Agency’s projection of demand stabilization by 2030, driven by the adoption of electric vehicles [9]. This divergence underscores the uncertainty surrounding long-term energy transitions and the challenges OPEC+ faces in adapting to a rapidly evolving market.

While the production increase may provide short-term stability, it is not without risks. If global demand weakens unexpectedly or if U.S.-led sanctions intensify, oil prices could come under downward pressure. Nevertheless, for now, OPEC+ appears to be prioritizing market share over short-term price volatility, signaling a new phase in the global energy landscape [10].

Source:

[1] Yahoo Finance - [https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eight-opec-countries-raise-production-141856641.html](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eight-opec-countries-raise-production-141856641.html)

[2] Interfax - [https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/113035/](https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/113035/)

[3] AInvest - [https://www.ainvest.com/news/opec-ends-year-chapter-move-uncertain-surplus-outlook-2508/](https://www.ainvest.com/news/opec-ends-year-chapter-move-uncertain-surplus-outlook-2508/)

[4] KFOR.com - [https://kfor.com/business/ap-business/ap-opec-countries-to-boost-oil-production-by-547000-barrels-per-day/](https://kfor.com/business/ap-business/ap-opec-countries-to-boost-oil-production-by-547000-barrels-per-day/)

[5] The National News - [https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2025/08/03/opec-agrees-to-raise-oil-output-for-september/](https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2025/08/03/opec-agrees-to-raise-oil-output-for-september/)

[6] OPEC - [https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1518572-03-august-2025.html](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1518572-03-august-2025.html)

[7] Times of India - [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/opec-output-hike-v8-to-raise-oil-production-by-547000-bpd-move-aimed-at-reclaiming-market-share/articleshow/123079023.cms](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/opec-output-hike-v8-to-raise-oil-production-by-547000-bpd-move-aimed-at-reclaiming-market-share/articleshow/123079023.cms)

[8] Cointribune - [https://www.cointribune.com/en/russia-and-saudi-arabia-to-boost-oil-production-starting-october/](https://www.cointribune.com/en/russia-and-saudi-arabia-to-boost-oil-production-starting-october/)