ONTUSDT Market Overview: Key Breakdown Confirmed, Volatility Expands

• Price dropped 6.3% from 0.1293 to 0.1219 in 24 hours.
• Key support tested at 0.1220–0.1223, with bearish momentum intact.
• RSI oversold below 30 and volume surged in final hours, hinting at possible bounce.
• Bollinger Band contraction noted near 0.1260–0.1275, followed by sharp break lower.
• Downtrend confirmed by lower highs and lower closes since 0.1295 peak.

ONTUSDT opened at 0.1293 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.1296, and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.1219, closing at 0.1219 as of 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume reached 6.9247 million, with notional turnover hitting $794,983. The sharp sell-off in the final hours of the period marked a critical breakdown below key support levels, signaling bearish continuation potential.

Structure & Formations

The price structure reveals a decisive breakdown below the 0.1223–0.1220 support cluster after a brief consolidation attempt near 0.1255–0.1260. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.1253–0.1246 at 14:15 ET, confirming renewed downside bias. A long lower wick near 0.1220 at 15:30 ET suggests partial rejection, but the subsequent candle at 16:00 ET closed at 0.1219, signaling continued selling pressure. A key bearish continuation pattern is now in place as price moves lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below the 50- and 20-period moving averages, with the 50 SMA falling below the 20 SMA to form a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at ~0.1285, while the 200-day MA sits at ~0.1325, confirming a longer-term bearish trend. As long as price remains below the 50 SMA (~0.1275), the downtrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The RSI fell to oversold territory (27) during the last 4 hours of the period, hinting at potential short-covering or a bounce. However, the MACD remained bearish, with the histogram expanding in the negative range and the line below the signal line. The divergence between RSI and price is weak, but the MACD confirms the momentum is still bearish. A move above 0.1230 would be needed to see a reversal in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened during the early morning hours at 0.1255–0.1275, forming a volatility contraction before the sharp breakdown. This was followed by a rapid expansion as price broke the lower band at 0.1220–0.1223. The widening bands suggest increased trading activity and a potential reversal or continuation, depending on how the 0.1220 level holds. Price is currently sitting near the lower band at 0.1220, indicating a high volatility environment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the last 3 hours of the period, with over 500,000 units traded at prices below 0.1230. Notional turnover increased in line with the price drop, confirming the bearish momentum. The correlation between volume and price action suggests genuine selling pressure rather than a false breakdown. The lack of a divergence between price and turnover supports the continuation of the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from 0.1295 to 0.1220, the 38.2% level is at 0.1261 and the 61.8% level is at 0.1245. These levels could serve as key resistance zones for any short-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from the broader 0.1325–0.1219 move is at 0.1258, which might act as a strong resistance if the pair begins to stabilize. Break above 0.1258 would challenge the bearish narrative.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy hinges on capturing continuation momentum after a confirmed breakdown of key support levels. A long bias in short-term trades would be triggered only after a retest of the 0.1220–0.1223 range with a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., a hammer or a bullish engulfing), confirmed by a close above 0.1225. Stop-loss would be placed below the recent low at 0.1218. A successful bounce could target the 0.1235–0.1240 cluster. For the bearish leg, a short trade could be triggered on a break below 0.1220, with stops above 0.1225 and a first target at 0.1210. Given the current momentum and volume, the short-side scenario appears more compelling in the near term.