ONTUSDT Market Overview

• Price dropped from 0.1336 to 0.1256 in 24 hours, with 39.8% drawdown.
• Volatility expanded, as seen in large swings between 0.1336 and 0.1265.
• Volume surged near 700k on the decline, suggesting strong bearish conviction.
• RSI and MACD both showed oversold conditions, signaling potential short-term bounce.
• Price has retested 0.127–0.128 range multiple times; likely key support area.

ONT/Tether (ONTUSDT) opened at 0.1309 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.1336 before declining to a low of 0.1256, closing at 0.127 at 12:00 ET October 4. The pair posted a 24-hour volume of 22,213,739.0 and a notional turnover of $2,800,791.25, indicating heightened bearish participation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish continuation with a key support cluster forming around 0.127–0.128, where the price has bounced four times in the last 12 hours. A long lower shadow in the candle ending at 0.1271 on October 4, 12:15 ET, suggests rejection at that level. A potential bearish engulfing pattern is forming as a series of higher-volume red candles follow a bullish breakout attempt. A doji formed at 0.1282 on October 4 at 08:00 ET, hinting at indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are converging downward, currently at 0.1285 and 0.1288, respectively, suggesting a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA are both below the 200DMA, with the 50DMA at 0.1295 and the 100DMA at 0.1300, indicating continued bearish pressure. The price closed below all three, confirming a bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line has been negative for the last 8 hours, with a bearish cross below the signal line at 0.0003. The histogram is shrinking, suggesting a potential slowdown in the bearish momentum. RSI stands at 28, indicating oversold conditions, although this may not necessarily trigger a bounce without volume confirmation. Both indicators align in the short-term bearish stance.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked following the sharp decline, widening the Bollinger Bands. Price has been testing the lower band (0.126–0.128) repeatedly since October 4 at 02:00 ET. A close above the 20-period SMA would signal a potential re-entry into the upper band, but current positioning is bearish. The contraction in the bands earlier in the day suggested a period of consolidation before the breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 713,493 at 00:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp pullback from 0.1319 to 0.1308. This was followed by a lower volume continuation of the decline, suggesting fading momentum. Notional turnover reached $92,800 at 04:00 ET, but remained below $40,000 for most of the session. The divergence between price and volume could signal an end to the bearish move if followed by a volume rebound on a rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the swing high at 0.1336 and low at 0.1265, key Fibonacci levels are positioned at 0.1296 (38.2%), 0.1282 (50%), and 0.1268 (61.8%). Price has tested and bounced off the 0.1282 level twice. A break below 0.1268 would signal a deeper correction into the 0.1256 range, which has already been touched once.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when price breaks above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart after forming a bullish engulfing pattern, with volume confirming the move. Short positions are triggered on a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level with increasing volume. Stops are placed at the nearest support or resistance level, and targets are set at the 38.2% and 50% levels for longs, and the next Fibonacci level for shorts.