ONTF Soars 36.8% on $400M Acquisition Deal – Is This the Final Chapter for ON24?

Summary
• ON24 (ONTF) surges 36.8% to $8.015, hitting a 52-week high of $8.045
• $400M all-cash acquisition by Cvent triggers 62% premium over November 10 close
• Options chain sees heavy volume in January 2026 $7.5 calls and puts
• Technicals show short-term bullish momentum with RSI at 38.9 and MACD divergence

Shares of ON24 have erupted in pre-market trading following the announcement of a definitive acquisition agreement with Cvent. The $8.10-per-share offer represents a dramatic re-rating for the digital engagement platform, sending its stock to a 52-week high. With the deal expected to close in H1 2026, investors are recalibrating positions as the stock trades near its new implied value.

Acquisition Premium Ignites Explosive Move
The 36.8% intraday surge in ON24 shares is directly attributable to the $400 million all-cash acquisition agreement with Cvent. The $8.10 per share offer represents a 62% premium over ON24’s November 10 closing price and a 51% premium to its 90-day volume-weighted average price. This premium pricing has created immediate value for shareholders, with the stock trading at $8.015—just $0.09 below the acquisition price. The transaction, unanimously approved by ON24’s board, combines ON24’s AI-powered engagement platform with Cvent’s event technology, positioning the merged entity to address evolving digital engagement needs in the B2B sector.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Acquisition Volatility
• MACD: 0.060 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.080)
• RSI: 38.9 (oversold territory)
• Bollinger Bands: $5.62–$6.10 (current price $8.015 above upper band)
• 200-day MA: $5.37 (stock trading 49% above)
• Implied volatility: 44.8% in January 2026 $7.5 calls

With the stock trading near its acquisition price, the most compelling options plays focus on near-term volatility and the likelihood of a smooth closing. The ONTF20260116C7.5 call option (strike $7.5, expiration 2026-01-16) offers 12.35% leverage with 77.36% delta, positioning it to benefit from a potential $8.10 close. At 44.76% implied volatility, the contract balances risk and reward. A 5% upside to $8.41 would yield a payoff of $0.91 per contract. The ONTF20260320C7.5 (strike $7.5, expiration 2026-03-20) provides 11.15% leverage with 77.07% delta and 23.80% IV, offering extended exposure to potential regulatory delays or shareholder approval delays. A 5% move would generate $0.91 per contract. Aggressive bulls may consider the ONTF20260320C7.5 into a bounce above $8.10, while hedgers might pair it with the ONTF20260116P7.5 put (160.50% leverage) to protect against a last-minute deal collapse.

Backtest ON24 Stock Performance
The 37% intraday surge in ONTF from 2022 to now has been followed by a decline in performance over various time frames. The backtest results show that while the 3-day win rate is relatively high at 51.34%, the returns over 10 and 30 days are negative, with a 10-day return of -1.32% and a 30-day return of -3.20%. This suggests that although the fund may have had a strong initial rally, it has struggled to maintain gains in the following period.

Final Bell: Acquisition Premium Locks in Short-Term Gains
The acquisition premium has effectively priced in the deal’s completion, with the stock trading just $0.09 below the $8.10 offer. Technicals suggest continued consolidation near the $8.00 level, supported by the 200-day MA at $5.37 and resistance at the 52-week high of $8.045. While the sector leader Adobe (ADBE) drifted 0.17% higher, ON24’s move is purely event-driven. Investors should monitor the January 2026 options chain for liquidity shifts and watch for a potential $8.10 price test as the stock approaches its acquisition floor. With the deal expected to close in H1 2026, the immediate focus remains on regulatory approvals and shareholder votes. For now, the stock appears range-bound between $7.97 and $8.045, with options volatility offering tactical entry points for those seeking to capitalize on the final leg of this acquisition story.