US Online Retail Sales Projected to Reach $1.27 Trln in 2025, 8.5% YoY Increase.

• E-commerce sales projected to hit $1.27 trillion in 2025, up 8.5% from 2024. • Online retail market share may approach a ceiling by 2030. • E-commerce share of US retail market expected to reach 23.5% in 2025. • Share gains to decelerate and plateau near 30% by 2030. • Total retail sales rose $2.4 trillion above pre-COVID expectations from 2020-2024. • 40% of growth attributed to inflation, not increased demand.

E-commerce sales are projected to hit $1.27 trillion in 2025, up 8.5% from 2024, according to recent market reports. This growth reflects the ongoing digital transformation of retail, driven by increased consumer adoption of online shopping and the proliferation of e-commerce platforms. The online retail market share is expected to approach a ceiling by 2030, indicating a potential saturation point for e-commerce growth.

The e-commerce share of the US retail market is expected to reach 23.5% in 2025, highlighting the significant role that online sales play in the overall retail landscape. However, it is anticipated that share gains will decelerate and plateau near 30% by 2030, suggesting a leveling off of the rapid growth seen in recent years.

Total retail sales rose $2.4 trillion above pre-COVID expectations from 2020 to 2024, demonstrating the resilience and growth of the retail sector despite the challenges posed by the pandemic. Notably, 40% of this growth can be attributed to inflation, rather than increased demand, indicating that a portion of the growth is driven by cost increases rather than consumer spending.

The Saudi Arabian market presents an interesting case study. E-commerce sales via "Mada" cards in Saudi Arabia reached SAR69.3 billion during the first quarter of 2025, marking an annual growth of 56% and an increase of approximately SAR24.9 billion compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. This growth underscores the potential of e-commerce in emerging markets, driven by increasing digital adoption and consumer confidence in online transactions.

In the U.S., traditional retailers are pivoting to capture a share of the $100 billion digital advertising market by 2028. Walmart and Costco are emerging as strategic front-runners in retail media 2.0, leveraging their scale and curated ecosystems to monetize their customer data. Walmart's retail media revenue is projected to grow from 3% to 5% of its gross merchandise value (GMV), reaching $10 billion in the U.S. by fiscal 2030 [2]. Meanwhile, Costco's retail media revenue is forecast to grow from $340 million today to over $1 billion by 2028, adding 10 basis points to operating margins. Target's missteps in 2025 highlight the risks of neglecting ESG and social responsibility, underscoring the importance of aligning with evolving consumer and regulatory priorities.

The GDPR services market, valued at USD 3 billion in 2024, is projected to reach USD 16.8 billion by 2033, driven by increasing data breaches, heightened consumer awareness, and stringent international data protection regulations [3]. This growth reflects the growing need for robust data protection solutions, particularly in sectors like healthcare, finance, and e-commerce.

In conclusion, the e-commerce landscape is evolving rapidly, with significant growth projected for the coming years. However, the pace of growth may decelerate, and market shares may plateau as the market approaches saturation. Traditional retailers are adapting by leveraging their strengths in e-commerce and retail media, while data protection regulations continue to shape the digital landscape.

References:
[1] https://www.zawya.com/en/business/retail-and-consumer/e-commerce-sales-in-saudi-arabia-exceed-184bln-during-q1-wnnb4f4i
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/win-retail-media-battle-walmart-costco-lead-charge-2507/
[3] https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/07/02/3108945/28124/en/GDPR-Services-Market-Report-2025-Valued-at-3-Billion-in-2024-the-Global-Industry-is-Forecast-to-Reach-16-8-Billion-by-2033.html